Reacción a "Climate change and an ageing population will accentuate disparities in heat and cold deaths in Europe"

This high-quality study, using data from multiple European countries, provides valuable insights into the impact of non-optimal temperatures on non-accidental mortality.

The analysis is based on a previous Lancet paper which assumes that the effect of temperature on all-cause non-accidental mortality is constant between 2000 and 2019.  Previous studies, including one with overlapping data have reported a decrease in heat-mortality impact over time, due to factors including infrastructural changes and improved health care.  Not accounting for this is expected to overestimate the future impact of heat on mortality.

According to the literature, it is expected that most estimated deaths are likely among individuals with underlying chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, or those with pre-existing mental health challenges.  Moving forward, it will be crucial to differentiate the specific impact of temperature on these conditions and to account for their evolving trends when making projections.