Marisol Soengas
Head of the Melanoma Group at the Spanish National Cancer Research Centre (CNIO)
The study is important because, although it is generally known that the incidence of skin cancer has been increasing for decades, statistics are incomplete and there are no good predictors of future trends. There are also no comprehensive publications on the impact of geographical distribution (which they consider to be related to socioeconomic status) on different age groups.
This study analyzes the incidence, prevalence, and health impact (relative loss of years due to disability) of the three most common types of skin cancer: melanoma, basal cell carcinomas, and squamous cell carcinomas, and estimates predictions for the year 2050.
One limitation of the study is that it is restricted to people over the age of 65. This consideration probably reflects the fact that people of this age traditionally accumulate more molecular alterations and more cellular damage in the skin, but it would have been interesting to analyze a younger population that is also at risk of developing this type of tumor.
The most relevant results highlight that, although the incidence and prevalence of different types of cancer have increased in the study period (1990-2021), mortality rates and years of life lost in patients with melanoma have decreased, and an even greater reduction of 45% is expected by 2050. This is good news.
The authors do not analyze the causes, but they are probably related to improvements in prevention, early diagnosis, and the development of more efficient treatments.
Squamous cell carcinoma is also on the rise (in 2021 there were 1.4 million new cases), particularly in men (230% more common than in women). A reduction in the number of deaths is also expected.
The worst news concerns basal cell carcinoma. This is the most common tumor (2.8 million new cases in 2021), with the highest mortality and loss of quality of life (morbidity related to years lost due to disability). These figures and trends are worse in men and, curiously, in countries with high socioeconomic status. Sun exposure, increased aging, and different lifestyles seem to worsen the incidence of skin cancer in countries that should have better health systems.