Matt Palmer
Science Fellow at the Met Office Hadley Centre and Associate Professor at the University of Bristol
This is a very important paper that finds widespread underestimation of the coastal flood impacts associated with projections of sea-level rise. On average, the height of sea level is underestimated by 0.3m, which represents a large fraction of the projected rise to 2100.
Of even greater concern is the underestimation of sea-level height by up to 1m in the Global South, where huge coastal populations live alongside the threat from extreme waves and storm surges.
This means that the impacts of sea-level rise under climate change have been systematically underestimated. Put another way, we could see devastating impacts from coastal flooding earlier than expected from climate projections - particularly in the Global South.
The paper raises important questions on the need for interdisciplinary expertise and guidance in sea-level rise impacts assessments. The work also suggests a need for more comprehensive world-wide sea level observations to anchor future impacts modelling.