Víctor Fernández-García
Lecturer in the Department of Engineering and Agricultural Sciences at the University of León
The rapid study provides an overview of the fires that occurred in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula during the summer of 2025. Specifically, it provides historical data on the area burned, illustrating how this year has been extraordinary, and offers detailed meteorological context.
The strength of the authors' analysis is undoubtedly the climatic aspect. They present robust evidence of how the meteorological risk of fires has increased over recent decades. As they show, this means that the weather conditions we have experienced this summer will become increasingly frequent (approximately once every 15 years) and intense (30% more prone to fires). This is very interesting, as it demonstrates how the conditions experienced would have been highly unlikely before humans began to warm the atmosphere (once every 2,500 years).
Methodologically, the analysis is based on indices and reference data sources, such as the DSM (a derivative of the Fire Weather Index) or ERA5 meteorological data, so the conclusions about the change in fire weather risk over the last few decades can be considered robust.
The main limitations of the study relate to some statements unrelated to meteorology. For example, the authors indicate that this year's fires have been the worst since 1961, which is not supported by their own data on burned area, as it would be the fifth worst year in Spain. They may be the worst fires, but perhaps in other aspects not explored in the article, such as size or intensity. The article also addresses other aspects, such as the vulnerability and exposure of the population to fires, although it does not carry out its own analysis in this regard.
The implications could be significant. For example, the results are fully in line with the main assumption and need raised by the State Pact on Climate Emergency proposed by the government, which argues that some impacts, such as fires, will become increasingly extreme in the context of climate change, and that we must be better prepared to deal with them.