Marie Spreckley
Prevention of Diabetes and Related Metabolic Disorders in High Risk Groups, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge (UK)
This systematic review and meta-analysis brings together 37 studies with 9,341 participants and shows a consistent pattern: after stopping weight management medication, weight is regained and improvements in cardiometabolic risk markers tend to diminish over time. The authors estimate an average weight regain of around 0.4 kg per month after treatment cessation, with weight projected to return to baseline at approximately 1.7 years. In the included trials, weight regain following medication cessation was greater than that observed after behavioural weight management programmes, even when accounting for the amount of weight lost during treatment. The authors also modelled changes in markers such as HbA1c, blood pressure and lipids, projecting a return towards baseline within around 1.4 years after stopping.
The press release broadly reflects the study’s findings, but it is important to distinguish between observed data and modelled projections. The analysis includes a mix of study designs, and many studies were not at low risk of bias. For newer incretin-based medicines such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, the evidence base remains relatively small and follow-up after stopping treatment is limited to around 12 months. As a result, longer-term statements, including full weight regain within two years, rely on extrapolation beyond the available data. Comparisons with behavioural programmes are indirect and should therefore be interpreted as suggestive rather than definitive.
In real-world terms, the findings reinforce that obesity management typically requires long-term planning. If people stop medication, many are likely to need ongoing nutritional and behavioural support, and health services should anticipate that cardiometabolic benefits may lessen as weight is regained. The study does not show that behavioural support reliably prevents regain after stopping medication, highlighting the need for further research into effective, scalable strategies for long-term weight maintenance alongside pharmacotherapy.