Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
ICREA Professor, Director of the Earth Sciences Department at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center
It is a preliminary and faster analysis than usual. It uses data that are not exactly local observations but are still of high quality. The methodology follows the usual procedure that WWA uses, with a mixture of statistical methods using both observations and simulations, in this case only global ones.
The conclusions are consistent with existing knowledge of temperature behaviour in the area in a context of climate change.
I would highlight, on the one hand, their speed. The conclusions are clear and point to the responsibility of climate change due to human action to increase the intensity of an event of this type. The change in the frequency of these events that they deduce is less conclusive. The contextualisation of the study is excellent, clearly explaining the importance of the adaptation strategies that are being developed (and need to be further developed). It is an essential source of information for the public to better understand the specific risks we face with climate change.
It would be useful to explain that tools exist for predicting these events several days to several weeks in advance, with varying degrees of accuracy depending on the time horizon.
The authors acknowledge that the work is preliminary and needs to be refined using additional observations and simulations. It is also important to note that, as the authors mention several times, the models used have difficulties in reproducing observed temperature trends in the region.