Autor/es reacciones

Gustavo Saiz

Senior scientist in the Department of Environment and Agronomy at the National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA-CSIC)

This fire, like so many others, cannot be explained by a single factor. The origin of the fire (the ignition) – which in this case appears to have been caused by a power line – is one thing. The spread and progression of the fire are quite another.

In this instance, there appears to have been a particularly unfavourable combination of very dry, continuous vegetation, exceptional temperatures, a prolonged absence of rainfall, extremely low atmospheric humidity (around 10 per cent during the most critical hours of the day), strong winds (gusts which appear to have reached 55–70 km/h), and a topography that favours rapid fire spread (the Sierra de Bédar has rugged terrain – ravines). The region had been experiencing an intense heatwave for several weeks. From what I can see, maximum temperatures of around 42 °C were recorded, along with numerous consecutive days above 35 °C, with very warm nights preventing the vegetation from regaining moisture. In this area, just a few weeks without rain during the summer are enough for fine fuel to reach very high levels of flammability.

Taken together, these conditions have created a scenario of extreme risk, in which an initially localised fire can very quickly develop into a major wildfire whose behaviour is difficult to control. Yes, everything seems to point to this being a fire with extreme behaviour. The rapid spread forced mass evacuations and led to people being trapped, which are characteristic of very high-intensity fires. The 2017 Pedrógão fire in Portugal is a tragic example of an equally catastrophic fire with numerous fatalities, although that incident had distinct characteristics. There, the fuel load was much greater.

At present, it cannot be stated that the fire is due to a lack of scrubland clearance. Nor can the opposite be stated until the Andalusian Regional Government reports on the preventive measures carried out in that area.

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