Isidro A. Pérez
Professor in the Department of Applied Physics and coordinator of the Atmospheric Pollution research group at the University of Valladolid
This article analyses the impact on public health of particles smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter produced by uncontrolled forest fires in Canada during 2023. The topic is of general interest due to its social impact, and the publication of the analysis in a leading journal is justified by the global scope of the study. In addition, the volume of data used, together with the various models employed, indicate the handling of a significant amount of information. However, as with any scientific article, the results should be treated with caution and are subject to discussion and review.
In particular, this article uses different spatial resolutions in the models it employs. Specifically, the 2.5° resolution is good for speeding up calculations, but it masks local processes that take place on a smaller spatial scale.
Since the dataset is very large, it is difficult to obtain complete series, and the authors have filled in some gaps with modelled data.
Some linear relationships between measured and predicted values could be questioned due to the dispersion of the data.
In addition, the authors indicate a lack of epidemiological evidence between mortality and particles emitted by fires, so they have taken an exposure-response function for all sources.
A striking assessment is that the number of deaths in Europe from uncontrolled fires in Canada is lower than that caused by dust.
The authors also point out that they consider environmental concentrations, but that exposure may be reduced indoors and that the effects will also be less, so they believe that further research is needed to improve the determination of the impact on the population.