Reacción a "Weather conditions conducive to wildfires have worsened significantly in Spain and France"

The article analyses the main meteorological variables underlying major forest fires, using the situation experienced in southern Europe in 2025 as a case study. It explains the downward trend in the area burnt and the number of fires over recent decades, alongside the increase in meteorological fire risk. The study examines the global effect of ENSO and the regional effect of the NAO on the variability of the FWI (Fire Weather Index), finding an anti-correlation between the NAO and the FWI in some areas of southern Europe, but not in the north-west of the Iberian Peninsula, where FWI variability appears to be related to ENSO anomalies in region 1+2, associated with La Niña. These relationships are statistical and do not in themselves demonstrate a causal link.

The study highlights the difference in fire regimes between the more Atlantic and the more Mediterranean regions, particularly on the Iberian Peninsula, which calls for differentiated strategies tailored to each context. In both contexts, the intensification of meteorological conditions increases the likelihood that some fires will exceed the capacity of the fire-fighting system, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift in risk management.

Limitations: the variables studied are purely meteorological and do not directly incorporate fuel characteristics; although the FWI estimates the moisture content of dead fuel, it does not include its quantity, structure or continuity. Only the high rainfall and the resulting vegetation growth in the spring of 2025 are mentioned in qualitative terms. Apart from surface conditions, recent scientific literature on extreme fire behaviour also includes the vertical structure of the atmosphere and the interaction between fire and the atmosphere as key factors in the behaviour and spread of forest fires, particularly in southern Europe.