Mark Maslin
Professor of Climatology at UCL
Donald Trump has won a historic second term as US President and this will have a profound impact on the domestic and international climate change agenda. Trump declared during his election campaign that he does not believe in climate change. During his first term in office, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and many of us predict he will do this again. Pulling out one of the world superpowers from COP negotiations to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is a big deal – as it allows other countries to slow their own decarbonisation and blame the US instead of their own lack of ambition.
Domestically Trump is a vocal supporter of coal, but coal use decline during his first Presidency due to the switch to gas and renewable energy. This has continued under President Biden and will continue into the future due to simple economics. This reflects global trends moving away from coal to natural gas and renewable energy. But the transition from fossil fuels is to slow and the UN have suggested that with current trends we are looking at 3.1˚C warming by the end of the century.
The other major trend that Trump has little influence on is the growth in the global green economy which is worth over $10 trillion annually which is 10% of the world’s GDP. In the US there are at least 10 million jobs in the green economy compared with 300,000 in the fossil fuel industry. Hence, if you want to grow your economy and make jobs, then investment in the green economy will be essential.
In summary Trump may slow down the transition away from fossil fuels and allow other countries to delay action – but the writing is on the wall both politically and economically for fossil fuels. It is when - not if - fossil fuels cease to be used as an energy source.