Urbano Fra Paleo
Member of the working group of the European Academies' Science Advisory Council (EASAC) author of the report, member of the science and technology advisory group (E-STAG) of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), retired professor at the University of Extremadura, member of the Academia Europaea (The Academy of Europe) and associate researcher at the Institute for Studies on Conflicts and Humanitarian Action (IECAH).
This study defines a future scenario of environmental change in which European society—both in the Mediterranean area and in regions historically less affected—will coexist with even more frequent and intense fires and pest outbreaks as a result of climate change, among other factors. This will lead to even greater social, economic, and environmental costs. The continued degradation of Europe’s forested systems projected by the modeling confirms previous findings.
The analysis provides a foundation for more decisively advancing climate change adaptation policies and preventive action against multi-hazard disasters through landscape planning and environmental conservation measures aimed at restoring degraded ecosystem services. At the same time, it highlights the need for policies to be adapted at both European and national levels in order to address the specific characteristics of different biomass types and ecosystems, adopting a differentiated strategy for the European Union.
The structure and composition of forests have changed as a result of the evolution of these systems, forest exploitation, climate change, and past events, and they will continue to do so in an even more dynamic way. Understanding the direction of these changes requires periodically repeating this type of analysis in order to identify trends and project future scenarios, enabling public policies to be regularly adjusted to the new context.