José Luis García Aróstegui
Scientific researcher in the Water and Global Change Department of the Geological and Mining Institute of Spain (IGME-CSIC)
This is a hard-hitting report that warns of the critical and extreme state of water resources worldwide and calls for a new paradigm based on the collapse of many water systems. Of particular interest is the way it defines the concepts of water stress, water crisis and water bankruptcy, the latter drawing a striking analogy with financial bankruptcy in order to frame the transition to a new phase.
The report argues that, at global level, hydrological limits have already been exceeded, for which there is abundant scientific evidence. As a result, many systems have entered what it terms ‘water bankruptcy’, meaning that the changes that have occurred are irreversible. This implies that returning to the pre-crisis state is unrealistic; instead, a permanent post-crisis condition must be managed. The report sets out an agenda for dealing with this new reality, which must begin with acceptance of this diagnosis and includes minimising irreversible damage, protecting the hydrological cycle and rebalancing rights and expectations. One of the implications of this new paradigm is that, for many systems, the focus needs to shift from mitigation — without ruling it out entirely — towards adaptation.
The condition of many aquifers, now severely depleted, is particularly significant. For these, recovery is not a realistic prospect, not only because of the high socio-economic costs involved but also because the dependent ecosystems associated with many of them disappeared decades ago. While the report places particular emphasis on quantitative aspects, the situation is, in many cases, even more critical once water quality degradation is taken into account. Nitrate pollution from agriculture is the most widespread form of water contamination globally, and there is little evidence of recovery when large groundwater bodies are affected, despite the vast sums of money invested.
In Europe, the Water Framework Directive makes clear that achieving good status is not optional but a legal objective to be met progressively, through continuous monitoring and sustained effort. After two extensions, the deadline expires in 2027. In south-east Spain in particular, where there is a severe problem of aquifer over-exploitation and depletion, concern is at its highest, as it remains unclear how the problem can be addressed. Aquifer depletion could reach 15 km³, making recovery unrealistic, and in many cases even halting further deterioration entails very high costs. Adaptation therefore means, among other things, focusing on specific cases. It must be acknowledged that this is not a crisis in the sense of a temporary situation, but a permanent condition with no prospect of recovery — in other words, the problem has no solution and must be managed as such.
The new narrative framework of ‘global water bankruptcy’ requires honesty in diagnosing, at local level and on the basis of scientific evidence, which water systems need to be addressed under this new agenda. In the European context, this approach should be aligned not only with the Water Framework Directive but, in an increasingly interconnected world, should also incorporate the concept of virtual water trade.