Autor/es reacciones

Jaime Llinares

Head of the Department of Architectural Constructions at the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)

This is a scientifically high-quality study, both in terms of the journal in which it is published and the methodological rigour of the analysis. The work, published in Nature Communications, uses high-resolution convective simulations combined with a physical attribution approach that compares the event under present-day and pre-industrial conditions, allowing a reasoned isolation of the influence of anthropogenic warming. The results, which show increases both in sub-daily precipitation intensity and in the spatial extent of rainfall exceeding critical thresholds, are consistent with well-documented thermodynamic mechanisms and with accumulated evidence from the Western Mediterranean. As a limitation, the authors themselves acknowledge that the analysis focuses on this specific event and not on the future frequency of similar episodes; however, this does not diminish the robustness of the approach or the physical consistency of the conclusions.

From the perspective of territorial and urban planning, the implications are particularly significant. If extreme convective events can intensify and affect larger areas under warming conditions, hydraulic design standards, the sizing of drainage networks, and the delineation of flood-prone areas should incorporate updated climate scenarios rather than relying solely on historical records. In densely urbanised Mediterranean regions, where soil sealing and occupation of potentially flood-prone areas increase vulnerability, studies of this kind provide a necessary scientific basis to strengthen regulatory adaptation. In my view, research like this is essential for anticipating risks and improving urban resilience; failing to integrate this evidence into planning would mean continuing to apply design criteria suited to a climate that is already changing.

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