Ernesto Rodríguez Camino
Senior State Meteorologist and president of Spanish Meteorological Association
The paper highlights and quantifies the role played in the July heat episodes over southern Europe, parts of the United States/Mexico and China by climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the massive use of fossil fuels. To do so, they make use of a well-established protocol developed by WWA for rapid, near-real-time attribution studies using pre-calculated simulations. It is a widely demonstrated fact that such extreme heat events are going to devastate areas of the planet more and more frequently and with episodes of greater intensity, geographic extent and duration depending on the level of global warming.
However, the paper does not mention a rather extraordinary fact that many researchers have pointed out, namely the exceptional marine heat wave in the North Atlantic Ocean that has been occurring since last April.
This marine heat wave could be due to a combination of both background warming due to continued greenhouse gas emissions and the intrinsic natural variability of the climate system, mainly represented by the warming and cooling phases of El Niño and La Niña, respectively.It appears that the extremely rare duration of three consecutive years of the La Niña phase may be, according to some researchers, co-responsible - together with global warming - for this marine heat wave in the North Atlantic. The role of this marine heat wave, at least in the heat episodes over southern Europe, remains to be further investigated.