Senior State Meteorologist and member of Spanish Meteorological Association
A paper published in Nature presents a machine learning model capable of producing reliable probabilistic weather forecasts. The model, called GenCast, outperforms the most efficient traditional medium-range weather forecasting and is also able to better predict extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind energy production.
The devastating effects caused by the DANA over the peninsula and the Balearic Islands in large parts of the Mediterranean area, especially in the Valencian Community and some regions of Andalusia, are a wake-up call on the relationship between these extreme events and climate change.
A study has analyzed changes in the Earth's average global surface temperature over the past 485 million years and has discovered oscillations ranging from 11°C to 36°C, representing a variation of up to 25°C. The research concludes that temperatures during the Phanerozoic underwent more fluctuations than previously thought and shows a correlation between CO2 and changes in Earth's temperature. The article, published in the journal Science, combines thousands of data points with a modeling method used for weather forecasting.
Nitrous oxide is considered one of the three most important greenhouse gases, behind carbon dioxide and methane. According to a report by the Global Carbon Project, emissions of this gas from human activities continue to grow, with a 40% increase over the last four decades - from 2020 to 1980. The research, led by Boston College and published in the journal Earth System Science Data, reveals that in the last decade, agricultural production through the use of nitrogen fertilizers and animal manure contributed 74% of total anthropogenic emissions of this gas.
An international group of researchers analyzed multiple data sets with current measurements and historical reconstructions. Their research concludes that, in the extratropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere (including Europe), the summer of 2023 was the warmest in 2,000 years. The authors published the results in the journal Nature.
A study has analysed data on heat waves from 1979 to 2020 and concludes that their propagation speed has decreased over the last 40 years due to anthropogenic causes. In addition, their frequency, intensity and travel distance have increased. According to the authors, "longer-lasting and slower-moving heat waves will cause more devastating effects on natural and social systems in the future if [greenhouse gases] continue to increase and effective mitigation measures are not taken". The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.
At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.
An attribution study by Climate Central concludes that from November 2022 to October 2023, global temperatures will set a new record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be the warmest 12-month period on record to date. The analysis shows that during this period, 5.7 billion people were exposed to at least 30 days of above-average temperatures, including most of the Spanish population.
The projection of a 2 °C rise in temperatures due to climate change would put 53 % of ski resorts in Europe, including Spanish resorts, at serious risk due to lack of snow. The percentage would rise to 98 % if the increase were 4 °C, according to the conclusions of a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The use of artificial snow on 50 % of a resort's surface would reduce the percentage of resorts at risk by approximately 25 %, although it would increase energy expenditure and carbon emissions.
An attribution study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) concludes that the heatwaves in Europe and North America this July would have been "almost impossible" without climate change. Over the past few weeks, southern Europe, parts of the United States, Mexico and China have experienced severe heatwaves with temperatures exceeding 45 °C. The WWA report notes that in China the heatwave was at least 50 times more likely due to the climate crisis.