Meeting in the city of Windoek (Namibia), the plenary of the IPBES - Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services - has ratified two new reports: the Nexus Assessment and the Transformative Change Assessment. Three of their authors explained the main findings and the changes they propose at a briefing organised by SMC Spain.
More than three-quarters of the earth's land surface experienced drier climates between 1990 and 2020 compared to the previous three decades, according to a new report by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Over the past 30 years, 40.6 percent of the global landmass, excluding Antarctica, is classified as drylands, three percentage points more than the previous three decades. The report, which is being presented at the COP16 on desertification being held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, also shows that 2.3 billion people were living in drylands in 2020, a population that could rise to 5 billion by 2100 under a worst-case climate change scenario.
A paper published in Nature presents a machine learning model capable of producing reliable probabilistic weather forecasts. The model, called GenCast, outperforms the most efficient traditional medium-range weather forecasting and is also able to better predict extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind energy production.
In three to six years, the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur if a series of extreme weather events - such as an unusually warm autumn, winter and spring in the region - occur, according to a study comparing various models and scenarios in Nature Communications. An ice-free day refers to a day with Arctic Ocean ice coverage of less than 1 million square kilometres; the average coverage was 6.85 million square kilometres between 1979 and 1992.
Funding has been one of the major obstacles to agreement at the Baku Climate Summit. More sustainable science also depends on how research is funded. It is imperative that research institutions also develop strategies to incorporate more sustainable practices and contribute to climate neutrality.
In the early hours of the morning, after more than two weeks of negotiations and on the verge of collapse, participants at COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan) reached an agreement to set the new climate finance target. In the end, at least 300 billion dollars a year will be contributed by rich countries to the least developed countries until 2035, within a broader global commitment of up to 1.3 trillion dollars directed at these same countries. The renewal of this target was part of the Paris Agreement and will enable governments to support developing countries in their climate action on adaptation, mitigation and damage from the climate crisis. The previous target - set at the Copenhagen Summit in 2009 - was $100 billion per year.
The DANA that devastated the province of Valencia on 29 October, leaving more than 200 people dead and many missing, has been followed by another one, still located over the peninsula. How can we adapt to these extreme phenomena? What repercussions do they have on public health? How can the public prepare for them? The Science Media Centre España organised a briefing session with two experts and an expert from the CSIC to discuss these questions.
The largest carbon balance report shows that carbon dioxide emissions have not yet peaked and are projected to reach 37.4 billion tonnes by 2024. In a briefing organised by SMC Spain, Pep Canadell, one of the people in charge of the Global Carbon Budget 2024, analysed these data and what Donald Trump's return as US president means for climate action in the framework of COP29 in Baku.
There are still no clear signs that global fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have peaked, according to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget. The report - which is published in the journal Earth System Science Data in preprint format and will be launched at COP29 in Baku - estimates that these emissions will grow by 0.8% this year compared to 2023, to 37.4 billion tonnes of CO2. If this rate continues, there is a 50% chance that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C limit in six years.
Private flights are used by approximately 0.003 % of the world's population, but the CO2 emissions they released in 2023 were equivalent to 1.8 % of those of all commercial aviation. These are the conclusions of a study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, which estimates that emissions from private flights increased by 46 % between 2019 and 2023. Almost half of them covered a distance of less than 500 kilometers.