climate change

Forest disturbances in Europe—including fires, insect pest outbreaks, and windstorms—could double by the end of the 21st century compared with the 2001–2020 period if emissions are not reduced. In the case of wildfires, the annual area burned could nearly triple. The Mediterranean region ranks among the most vulnerable, and almost 90% of Mediterranean forests could be affected by increased fires and pest outbreaks under higher warming scenarios. The findings are published in a study in the journal Science involving Spanish research centers such as CREAF, the CTFC and the University of Girona.

Researchers have reviewed nearly 400 scientific articles related to sea level rise and associated risks and concluded that most studies may have underestimated global sea level rise by an average of 0.3 meters. In some areas of the Global South, these levels could be up to 1 meter higher than previously thought. According to the authors, a reassessment of the methodology used to characterize the impact of sea level rise is necessary, as this could have implications for policy, climate finance, and coastal adaptation plans. The study is published in Nature.

The transition zone between land and sea in glaciers is an indicator of their stability. An analysis of satellite measurements from 1992 to 2025 has shown that 77% of Antarctica’s coastline has experienced no change. The 23% that did see a reduction in area was concentrated in regions where deep troughs allow access to warmer waters and where the bed slopes inland. These include the Antarctic Peninsula, Wilkes and George V Lands, and West Antarctica, where retreat of this transition line ranged between 10 and 40 km. A total of 12,800 km² of ice has been lost —an area roughly equivalent to almost half the size of Galicia— most of it in West Antarctica. The results are published in the journal PNAS.

New research analysing more than 33,000 fish populations in the northern hemisphere between 1993 and 2021 reveals that chronic ocean warming is driving a long-term decline in biomass of up to 19.8% per year for species in the Mediterranean, North Atlantic and North-East Pacific. At the same time, in the short term, more fish are thriving in cold areas due to the heat, but these increases are temporary and the authors warn that relying on them would lead to unsustainable exploitation. The study, by the National Museum of Natural Sciences (MNCN-CSIC) and the National University of Colombia, is published in Nature Ecology & Evolution.

An international team involving ISGlobal has analyzed climate data from 50 editions of the Tour de France between 1974 and 2023. The results show that, during the month of July, the risk of heat stress has increased over the years, with the last decade seeing the highest number of extreme heat episodes. In the locations analyzed, the Tour has so far managed to avoid conditions of maximum risk to health, but according to the researchers, it has been "an extremely fortunate race. With record heat waves becoming more frequent, it seems only a matter of time before the Tour faces days of extreme heat stress that will test current safety protocols. The study, published in Scientific Reports, used the Tour de France as an example of the challenge that rising temperatures associated with climate change pose for the organization of sporting events in the summer.

Human-induced climate change amplified the intensity and extent of the rainfall that affected Valencia during the October 2024 dana, according to a new attribution study involving several Spanish research centres. Using climate simulations, the study, published in Nature Communications, shows that present-day global warming conditions increased precipitation intensity by 21 %, expanded the area receiving more than 180 millimetres of rain by 56 %, and raised the total rainfall volume in the Júcar River basin by 19 % compared to a pre-industrial scenario. The authors highlight “the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies and improved urban planning to reduce the growing risks associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in a rapidly warming world.”

The body composition index – used to estimate body fat reserves – of polar bears in Svalbard declined between 1995 and 2000, but then increased until 2019, despite the fact that the number of ice-free days in this Norwegian Arctic archipelago increased by about four days per year during that period. "Increases in some prey species, including harbour seals, reindeer, and walrus, may partly offset reduced access to seals," the authors write in Scientific Reports.

A new report from the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) toughens the discourse on the current water emergency by referring to an era of "global water bankruptcy". According to the report, the terms "water stress" or "water crisis" are no longer sufficient, as we find ourselves in a situation that goes beyond a temporary crisis, characterised by irreversible losses of natural water resources and the inability to return to historical levels. The report points out that, although not all basins are in water bankruptcy, "enough critical systems around the world have crossed these thresholds" and are interconnected through trade, migration, climate or geopolitics.

According to data published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which manages the Copernicus Climate Change Service, last year was the third warmest on record. Globally, the last 11 years have been the 11 warmest since records began, and global temperatures for the last three years (2023-2025) have exceeded, on average, 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This is the first time a three-year period has surpassed the 1.5°C threshold.

Although extensive livestock farming has increased in some regions, it has also decreased in 42% of pastures dedicated to this purpose, according to a study published in the journal PNAS that analyses data from 1999 to 2023. The decline has occurred in wealthy areas of the world, such as Europe, North America and Australia, where consumption trends have shifted towards animals such as pigs and chickens. The increase was seen in poorer areas, specifically in Africa, Asia, South America and Central America. The authors of the study, one of whom is Spanish, state that ‘reductions in livestock stocking rates can have significant ecological consequences at regional and global scales,’ affecting biodiversity and fire regimes.