climate change

The global economy could lose, on average, 19% of income by 2049 due to increased carbon emissions over the past four decades, says an analysis published in Nature. To estimate the future economic damages of climate change, the authors used temperature and precipitation data for 1,600 regions worldwide in the past 40 years. Low-income countries will be more affected by these losses than higher-income countries, the authors warn. 

A study has analysed data on heat waves from 1979 to 2020 and concludes that their propagation speed has decreased over the last 40 years due to anthropogenic causes. In addition, their frequency, intensity and travel distance have increased. According to the authors, "longer-lasting and slower-moving heat waves will cause more devastating effects on natural and social systems in the future if [greenhouse gases] continue to increase and effective mitigation measures are not taken". The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.  

Some 90 % of coastal and lowland wine-growing regions in Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California are at risk from extreme events, such as excessive droughts and heat waves, according to a review published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. The article summarises the expected changes and the adaptations that wine producers will need to make.   

According to a report published yesterday in The New York Times, most of the members of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy had rejected the proposal to declare the beginning of the Anthropocene, thus showing their opposition to the idea that this is a new geological epoch. Other sources told El País that the result of the vote was not formally confirmed. If this proposal is defeated, the process could be restarted from scratch at a later date.

Global average surface temperatures may have already surpassed the 1.5°C warming mark and could exceed 2°C by the end of the decade, as suggested by an article published in Nature Climate Change. The projections are based on 300 years of preserved ocean temperature records found in Caribbean sponge skeletons.

After an intense night of negotiations in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), the countries participating in COP28 reached a historic agreement by mentioning for the first time "moving away from fossil fuels" in the Global Stocktake document - the assessment of progress made towards achieving the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The agreement comes after the first draft presented by the presidency did not make this mention - it referred only to "reducing consumption and production" of these fuels - which was described as "unacceptable" by countries such as Spain.

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have increased again in 2023, reaching record levels, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes of CO₂. This means they are 1.4% above pre-pandemic CO₂ levels. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report that researcher Pep Canadell presented at a briefing organised by SMC Spain.

At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.

With just days to go before COP28 kicks off in Dubai -a major city in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates- climate experts are torn between mistrust and hope that world leaders will reach ambitious agreements to combat the climate crisis.

An attribution study by Climate Central concludes that from November 2022 to October 2023, global temperatures will set a new record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be the warmest 12-month period on record to date. The analysis shows that during this period, 5.7 billion people were exposed to at least 30 days of above-average temperatures, including most of the Spanish population.