global warming

A study has analysed data on heat waves from 1979 to 2020 and concludes that their propagation speed has decreased over the last 40 years due to anthropogenic causes. In addition, their frequency, intensity and travel distance have increased. According to the authors, "longer-lasting and slower-moving heat waves will cause more devastating effects on natural and social systems in the future if [greenhouse gases] continue to increase and effective mitigation measures are not taken". The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.  

Global average surface temperatures may have already surpassed the 1.5°C warming mark and could exceed 2°C by the end of the decade, as suggested by an article published in Nature Climate Change. The projections are based on 300 years of preserved ocean temperature records found in Caribbean sponge skeletons.

After an intense night of negotiations in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), the countries participating in COP28 reached a historic agreement by mentioning for the first time "moving away from fossil fuels" in the Global Stocktake document - the assessment of progress made towards achieving the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The agreement comes after the first draft presented by the presidency did not make this mention - it referred only to "reducing consumption and production" of these fuels - which was described as "unacceptable" by countries such as Spain.

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have increased again in 2023, reaching record levels, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes of CO₂. This means they are 1.4% above pre-pandemic CO₂ levels. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report that researcher Pep Canadell presented at a briefing organised by SMC Spain.

At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.

An attribution study by Climate Central concludes that from November 2022 to October 2023, global temperatures will set a new record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be the warmest 12-month period on record to date. The analysis shows that during this period, 5.7 billion people were exposed to at least 30 days of above-average temperatures, including most of the Spanish population.

A study has analysed the association between ambient temperature and hospital mortality from respiratory diseases in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona between 2006 and 2019. Their results indicate that high summer temperatures were responsible for 16% and 22.1% of all fatal hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. According to the team, led by ISGlobal, "unless effective adaptation measures are taken in hospitals, global warming could exacerbate mortality in patients admitted for respiratory diseases during the summer period". The research is published in the journal The Lancet Regional Health - Europe.

In 64 % of the cases, the temperature thresholds that define a heatwave according to the Ministry of Health are below the heatwave threshold established by AEMET. This implies that the population does not perceive situations of risk to their health when they do exist.

A model-based study estimates that there will be ice-free Arctic Septembers about a decade earlier than previously predicted. The possibility of this happening between 2030 and 2050 exists even in low-emissions scenarios, which is a more pessimistic estimate than the last IPCC report. The results are published in the journal Nature Communications.