global warming

Researchers have reviewed nearly 400 scientific articles related to sea level rise and associated risks and concluded that most studies may have underestimated global sea level rise by an average of 0.3 meters. In some areas of the Global South, these levels could be up to 1 meter higher than previously thought. According to the authors, a reassessment of the methodology used to characterize the impact of sea level rise is necessary, as this could have implications for policy, climate finance, and coastal adaptation plans. The study is published in Nature.

The transition zone between land and sea in glaciers is an indicator of their stability. An analysis of satellite measurements from 1992 to 2025 has shown that 77% of Antarctica’s coastline has experienced no change. The 23% that did see a reduction in area was concentrated in regions where deep troughs allow access to warmer waters and where the bed slopes inland. These include the Antarctic Peninsula, Wilkes and George V Lands, and West Antarctica, where retreat of this transition line ranged between 10 and 40 km. A total of 12,800 km² of ice has been lost —an area roughly equivalent to almost half the size of Galicia— most of it in West Antarctica. The results are published in the journal PNAS.

Human-induced climate change amplified the intensity and extent of the rainfall that affected Valencia during the October 2024 dana, according to a new attribution study involving several Spanish research centres. Using climate simulations, the study, published in Nature Communications, shows that present-day global warming conditions increased precipitation intensity by 21 %, expanded the area receiving more than 180 millimetres of rain by 56 %, and raised the total rainfall volume in the Júcar River basin by 19 % compared to a pre-industrial scenario. The authors highlight “the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies and improved urban planning to reduce the growing risks associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in a rapidly warming world.”

According to data published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which manages the Copernicus Climate Change Service, last year was the third warmest on record. Globally, the last 11 years have been the 11 warmest since records began, and global temperatures for the last three years (2023-2025) have exceeded, on average, 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This is the first time a three-year period has surpassed the 1.5°C threshold.

In 2025, climate change drove extreme weather events around the world, disproportionately affecting vulnerable and marginalised communities. In addition, global temperatures were exceptionally high, heatwaves were significantly more intense than 10 years ago, and millions of people were pushed to the limits of their ability to adapt. These are the main conclusions of the 2025 report published by the World Weather Attribution initiative, whose experts believe that ‘drastically reducing fossil fuel emissions remains the key policy for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change’.

One day after the deadline, COP30 in Belém (Brazil) has finally reached a minimal agreement. The text does not mention a roadmap for abandoning fossil fuels, as requested by more than 80 states, including the European Union. The agreement states that countries agreed to accelerate climate action and triple funding for developing countries facing extreme weather events.

The Global Carbon Budget's projections for 2025 estimate that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels will reach a new all-time high of 38.1 billion tons, an increase of 1.1% over 2024. This global report—now in its 20th edition and to be presented at COP30 in Belém, Brazil—estimates that emissions in the United States and the European Union will grow this year, in contrast to the decline in previous years, partly due to weather conditions and higher energy consumption. The study is published in the journal Earth System Science Data in preprint format.

At the current rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the 1.5°C temperature increase limit set in the Paris Agreement will be exceeded in four years. This is one of the predictions of the Global Carbon Budget 2025, the global report on the carbon balance, now in its 20th edition, which will be presented at COP30 in Belém (Brazil). Pep Canadell, one of its authors, analyzed its findings at a briefing organized by SMC Spain.

Lakes are considered sentinels of climate change, although most research has focused on temperate regions. An international team analysed 10 tropical lakes in the central Amazon during the 2023 drought, which caused high mortality among fish and river dolphins. Using satellite data and hydrodynamic models, the authors show how intense drought and a heatwave combined to raise water temperatures: five of the 10 lakes experienced very high daytime temperatures, exceeding 37°C. Specifically, temperatures in the shallow waters of Lake Tefé soared to 41°C—hotter than a thermal bath. The study is published in Science.

COP30 will kick off on 10 November in Belém, a Brazilian city and gateway to the Amazon. Expectations are high because it coincides with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, whose goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C was shattered in 2024. In addition, this year countries must present a new version of their measures to combat climate change in a turbulent geopolitical context, marked by the Trump administration's abandonment of the climate agenda.