global warming

At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.

An attribution study by Climate Central concludes that from November 2022 to October 2023, global temperatures will set a new record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be the warmest 12-month period on record to date. The analysis shows that during this period, 5.7 billion people were exposed to at least 30 days of above-average temperatures, including most of the Spanish population.

A study has analysed the association between ambient temperature and hospital mortality from respiratory diseases in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona between 2006 and 2019. Their results indicate that high summer temperatures were responsible for 16% and 22.1% of all fatal hospitalisations for respiratory diseases in Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. According to the team, led by ISGlobal, "unless effective adaptation measures are taken in hospitals, global warming could exacerbate mortality in patients admitted for respiratory diseases during the summer period". The research is published in the journal The Lancet Regional Health - Europe.

In 64 % of the cases, the temperature thresholds that define a heatwave according to the Ministry of Health are below the heatwave threshold established by AEMET. This implies that the population does not perceive situations of risk to their health when they do exist.

A model-based study estimates that there will be ice-free Arctic Septembers about a decade earlier than previously predicted. The possibility of this happening between 2030 and 2050 exists even in low-emissions scenarios, which is a more pessimistic estimate than the last IPCC report. The results are published in the journal Nature Communications.

Research published in Nature shows that the Eurasian ice sheet may have retreated up to 600 metres a day on the Norwegian continental shelf during the last deglaciation at the end of the last Ice Age, around 20,000 years ago. This would indicate that retreat rates in this region may have far exceeded previous estimates and would be much greater than any observed from satellites. According to the authors, the research "is a warning from the past about the rate at which ice sheets are physically capable of retreating".

Almost a decade after the previous edition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented the synthesis report of its sixth assessment cycle (AR6) on Monday in Switzerland. "This synthesis report underlines the urgency of taking more ambitious action and demonstrates that, if we act now, we can still secure a sustainable and liveable future for all," said IPCC chair Hoesung Lee. 

The document includes the main findings of the three Working Group reports of 2021 and 2022 (Physical basis, Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and Mitigation of climate change) and the three special reports of 2018 and 2019 (Global warming of 1.5°C, Climate change and land, Ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate). With this document, which is primarily addressed to policy makers, the IPCC closes its sixth assessment cycle.

As rising temperatures melt glaciers, meltwater can accumulate and form lakes nearby. These bodies of water represent a natural hazard because of the floods they cause if they overflow. Researchers have estimated that 15 million people are at risk from these floods, and more than half of them live in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru and China. The research is published in Nature Communications.

Although in 2020 the covid-19 pandemic caused confinement and economic paralysis in many countries, the rate of methane growth in the atmosphere peaked, reaching the highest level since 1984. Research published in Nature claims that the main source would be the warmer, wetter wetlands of the northern hemisphere.