Clear evidence of human-induced climate change reached new heights in 2024 and some of the consequences will be irreversible for hundreds or thousands of years, according to the World Meteorological Organisation's State of the Global Climate 2024 report. It also highlights the enormous economic and social impacts of extreme weather conditions.
Research has analyzed how extreme heat influences the biological age of elderly populations, specifically in the United States. The study, published in Science Advances, used blood samples from more than 3,600 adults with an average age of 68 collected between 2010 and 2016. The team compared epigenetic aging trends with the number of days of extreme heat in the participants' places of residence. The models showed that more days of heat or long-term heat — over a period of one to six years — increased the biological age of the participants by more than two years.
An international team has analysed temperature and mortality data from 854 urban areas in Europe, and estimated that temperature-related deaths could increase by 50 % by the end of the century - which would mean up to 2.3 million more deaths - if no climate change mitigation measures are taken. This percentage is even higher in southern parts of the continent, such as Spain. The results are published in the journal Nature Medicine.
The year 2024 was the warmest year on record globally and the first calendar year in which the global average temperature exceeded its pre-industrial level by 1.5 °C, the Copernicus Climate Change Service has confirmed.
In three to six years, the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur if a series of extreme weather events - such as an unusually warm autumn, winter and spring in the region - occur, according to a study comparing various models and scenarios in Nature Communications. An ice-free day refers to a day with Arctic Ocean ice coverage of less than 1 million square kilometres; the average coverage was 6.85 million square kilometres between 1979 and 1992.
Ten of the 16 stadiums that will host the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup in Mexico, the United States and Canada are at ‘very high’ risk of extreme heat stress conditions, according to a study published in Scientific Reports. Using data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the analysis concludes that the risk will be highest at stadiums in Arlington, Houston (USA) and Monterrey (Mexico).
A new epidemiological forecasting model could provide a better system for early temperature-related health warnings, according to a paper published in Science Advances. The model, called Forcaster.health, could provide mortality predictions at least 10.5 days before cold episodes and 8.3 days before hot episodes. The Universitat Pompeu Fabra and ISGlobal took part in its design.
More frequent and severe wildfires increase the temperature of the exposed land surface one year after the fire, according to an analysis of forest satellite data collected from 2003 to 2016. In recent decades, large wildfires have doubled or tripled their average size in eastern Spain, Canada, and western United States, as noted in the research published in Nature. The authors call for consideration of these effects on surface temperature when managing forests.
A modelling study published in The Lancet Public Health using data from 854 European cities estimates that heat-related deaths will triple in Europe by 2100 under current climate policies. A slight decrease in cold-related deaths is projected, while heat-related deaths will increase in all parts of Europe. The most affected areas will include Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France. Currently, around eight times as many people in Europe die from cold as from heat, but this proportion is projected to decrease considerably by the end of the century.
Heat-related mortality in Europe would have been 80% higher last year without recent adaptation measures to rising temperatures, such as changes in infrastructure and public behaviour, according to a study led by ISGlobal. The study, published in Nature Medicine, estimates that more than 47,000 deaths were related to the heat in 35 European countries in 2023 - the second highest number in the 2015-2023 period, behind 2022. Heat-related mortality was highest in southern European countries including Spain (175 deaths per million people), Italy (209) and Greece (393).