heat

In three to six years, the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur if a series of extreme weather events - such as an unusually warm autumn, winter and spring in the region - occur, according to a study comparing various models and scenarios in Nature Communications. An ice-free day refers to a day with Arctic Ocean ice coverage of less than 1 million square kilometres; the average coverage was 6.85 million square kilometres between 1979 and 1992.

Ten of the 16 stadiums that will host the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup in Mexico, the United States and Canada are at ‘very high’ risk of extreme heat stress conditions, according to a study published in Scientific Reports. Using data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the analysis concludes that the risk will be highest at stadiums in Arlington, Houston (USA) and Monterrey (Mexico).

A new epidemiological forecasting model could provide a better system for early temperature-related health warnings, according to a paper published in Science Advances. The model, called Forcaster.health, could provide mortality predictions at least 10.5 days before cold episodes and 8.3 days before hot episodes. The Universitat Pompeu Fabra and ISGlobal took part in its design.

More frequent and severe wildfires increase the temperature of the exposed land surface one year after the fire, according to an analysis of forest satellite data collected from 2003 to 2016. In recent decades, large wildfires have doubled or tripled their average size in eastern Spain, Canada, and western United States, as noted in the research published in Nature. The authors call for consideration of these effects on surface temperature when managing forests.

A modelling study published in The Lancet Public Health using data from 854 European cities estimates that heat-related deaths will triple in Europe by 2100 under current climate policies. A slight decrease in cold-related deaths is projected, while heat-related deaths will increase in all parts of Europe. The most affected areas will include Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France. Currently, around eight times as many people in Europe die from cold as from heat, but this proportion is projected to decrease considerably by the end of the century.

Heat-related mortality in Europe would have been 80% higher last year without recent adaptation measures to rising temperatures, such as changes in infrastructure and public behaviour, according to a study led by ISGlobal. The study, published in Nature Medicine, estimates that more than 47,000 deaths were related to the heat in 35 European countries in 2023 - the second highest number in the 2015-2023 period, behind 2022. Heat-related mortality was highest in southern European countries including Spain (175 deaths per million people), Italy (209) and Greece (393). 

Summer is a season of beaches, pools, excursions, trips, and mountain hikes. But it is also the best time of the year for bedbugs, wasps, jellyfish, and mosquitoes. With this guide, we will know what to do (and not to do) if we have an undesirable encounter with one of these animals: the first step, stay calm.  

Scientists in Hong Kong have studied the usefulness of six indices that estimate the severity and health hazard of a heatwave. Analysing several episodes in recent years in Spain, India and the United States, they conclude that five of the six were not able to capture their severity and spatial distribution effectively enough, especially in low humidity conditions. The most useful was the so-called "lethal heat stress index", but the researchers - publishing their results in the Cell group's journal Nexus - say that it too can be improved and that a more global framework is needed to mitigate dangerous heatwaves.  

August 2003 was the month of the heatwave that killed 70,000 people in Europe. In France, with 14,800 deaths, the Minister of Health resigned, and in Spain, with 6,500, the first prevention plan for the extreme heat was put in motion, which came into force in 2004. Two decades later, campaigns and preventive measures in social services, nursing homes, and hospitals have generated the so-called "heat culture," and although temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, this adaptation is limiting its impact.

A team led by the Carlos III Health Institute has analyzed how short-term concentrations of particles associated with wildfires and Saharan dust incursions influence hospital admissions in Spain due to mental and behavioral disorders. The results were explained in a briefing organized by the Science Media Centre Spain.