An international group of researchers analyzed multiple data sets with current measurements and historical reconstructions. Their research concludes that, in the extratropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere (including Europe), the summer of 2023 was the warmest in 2,000 years. The authors published the results in the journal Nature.
Until now, it was thought that the risk of heat-related death in Spain had decreased among older people. But what if we take into account the increase in longevity? Has it decreased as much as the studies suggested? In this case it is useful to use the concept of prospective age, i.e. the years we hypothetically have left to live, rather than the years we have lived.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service, together with the World Meteorological Organisation, publishes the report on the state of Europe's climate in 2023. According to their findings, last year was one of the hottest on record, with a record number of extreme heat stress days and widespread flooding. According to their calculations, heat-related mortality has increased by 30 % over the last 20 years.
A study has analysed data on heat waves from 1979 to 2020 and concludes that their propagation speed has decreased over the last 40 years due to anthropogenic causes. In addition, their frequency, intensity and travel distance have increased. According to the authors, "longer-lasting and slower-moving heat waves will cause more devastating effects on natural and social systems in the future if [greenhouse gases] continue to increase and effective mitigation measures are not taken". The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.
An attribution study by Climate Central concludes that from November 2022 to October 2023, global temperatures will set a new record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be the warmest 12-month period on record to date. The analysis shows that during this period, 5.7 billion people were exposed to at least 30 days of above-average temperatures, including most of the Spanish population.
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has issued an information note warning of "exceptionally high" temperatures for this time of year in Spain, especially between Friday 29 September and Monday 2 October.
On the eve of an episode of unusually high temperatures for this time of year, it is time to take stock of the summer we have experienced, characterised by a succession of extreme weather phenomena in the form of heat waves, drought and torrential rains. The seriousness and complexity of these problems and their repercussions in many areas, especially on health, make it urgent to set up the Health and Climate Change Observatory approved last July, with a stable and independent structure.
Most research has studied marine heatwaves at the sea surface. Now, a study published in Nature Climate Change analyses the effects of these phenomena at depths of up to 2,000 metres. The research, based on data from waves occurring between 1993 and 2019, shows that these waves tend to be more intense between 50 and 200 metres, and that their duration increases up to twice as much with depth compared to the surface, which has an impact on the marine fauna living in that area.
Counting deaths attributable to the effects of high temperatures is basic as a public health surveillance tool, but it should not become the only research objective. It is necessary to know why the population in some places adapts better than others to heat waves, what variables influence them, and to modify them when possible.
In 64 % of the cases, the temperature thresholds that define a heatwave according to the Ministry of Health are below the heatwave threshold established by AEMET. This implies that the population does not perceive situations of risk to their health when they do exist.