A new epidemiological forecasting model could provide a better system for early temperature-related health warnings, according to a paper published in Science Advances. The model, called Forcaster.health, could provide mortality predictions at least 10.5 days before cold episodes and 8.3 days before hot episodes. The Universitat Pompeu Fabra and ISGlobal took part in its design.
241113 forcaster dominic EN
Dominic Royé
Head of data science
The is of high quality and promotes the advancement of a warning system based on current scientific evidence. Instead of using thresholds, it makes use of the exposure-response relationship between mortality and temperature in order to predict potential future risk, and even estimate the number of deaths.
We typically use these models to quantify effects retrospectively - that is, after extreme heat or cold events have passed - which makes effective public health actions difficult. However, there is still some way to reach a small-area scale.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
Marcos Quijal-Zamorano et al.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
