Head of data science
A new epidemiological forecasting model could provide a better system for early temperature-related health warnings, according to a paper published in Science Advances. The model, called Forcaster.health, could provide mortality predictions at least 10.5 days before cold episodes and 8.3 days before hot episodes. The Universitat Pompeu Fabra and ISGlobal took part in its design.
A study by a team from the ClimaMeter project claims that the intensification of rainfall from the DANA that devastated Valencia and other regions on 29 October is mainly attributed to human-induced climate change. Natural climate variability, on the other hand, probably played a modest role. According to the analysis, this DANA was driven by very exceptional weather conditions. The work also shows that the DANA-like depressions that cause flooding in the southeastern peninsular are up to 15 % wetter than they were in the past. In addition, temperatures are up to 3°C warmer, which favours storm formation in these events over the Mediterranean basin.
Heat-related mortality in Europe would have been 80% higher last year without recent adaptation measures to rising temperatures, such as changes in infrastructure and public behaviour, according to a study led by ISGlobal. The study, published in Nature Medicine, estimates that more than 47,000 deaths were related to the heat in 35 European countries in 2023 - the second highest number in the 2015-2023 period, behind 2022. Heat-related mortality was highest in southern European countries including Spain (175 deaths per million people), Italy (209) and Greece (393).
Meteorological models have improved significantly in recent decades, but they will never be one hundred percent accurate. Knowing how to communicate uncertainty and not fueling citizens' mistrust in the reliability of predictions is important to avoid sowing doubts about alert systems for upcoming emergencies, such as the DANA that affected Spain in recent days.
An attribution study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) concludes that the heatwaves in Europe and North America this July would have been "almost impossible" without climate change. Over the past few weeks, southern Europe, parts of the United States, Mexico and China have experienced severe heatwaves with temperatures exceeding 45 °C. The WWA report notes that in China the heatwave was at least 50 times more likely due to the climate crisis.
Climate change made the late April episode of record temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula, Morocco and Algeria 100 times more likely to occur, with temperatures up to 3.5°C higher than they would have been without the climate crisis. This is one of the conclusions of an attribution study conducted by World Weather Attribution.
The current situation is only the beginning of what may come in the coming decades, which should lead us to increase efforts in mitigation and adaptation strategies: more green and shaded areas, energy efficiency in buildings and avoiding working outdoors in extreme temperatures.
The lack of rainfall and the decrease in available water resources have caused 47% of European territory to be on drought pre-alert and 17% to be on alert. The lesser experience of northern countries in managing this phenomenon and the high vulnerability of southern regions mean that this drought is having a major impact on various economic sectors, in addition to supply cuts.
A study published in PNAS sets out a worst-case scenario for current climate change, explains the likelihood of its occurrence and analyses the devastating consequences it would have. It also includes a research agenda to address it.
The terms "endemism" and "seasonality" are increasingly used to refer to the covid-19 pandemic. They are sometimes incorrectly associated with the severity of the disease or with the premature end of the pandemic. What do they mean? Does SARS-CoV-2 fit these definitions? Will it ever do so thanks to vaccines?