Darío Redolat

Currently, weather forecasts become less accurate as the lead time increases, especially beyond two weeks. A study published in the journal Nature presents a machine learning method that corrects errors in existing weather models and improves forecasts for a period of two to six weeks. When applied to an artificial intelligence model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the method doubled its predictive capability. It also improved the prediction of extreme weather events, such as floods and cold snaps. According to the article, these advances could help improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness. 

Meteorological models have improved significantly in recent decades, but they will never be one hundred percent accurate. Knowing how to communicate uncertainty and not fueling citizens' mistrust in the reliability of predictions is important to avoid sowing doubts about alert systems for upcoming emergencies, such as the DANA that affected Spain in recent days.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has declared the onset of El Niño conditions on Tuesday. "The declaration of El Niño by the WMO is the signal for governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. According to the WMO statement, El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely rise in global temperatures and altered weather and climate patterns.

After three years in which the planet's climate has experienced a phenomenon known as La Niña, in 2023 it gives way to its opposite, El Niño. This has led the World Meteorological Organization to warn that this event, added to climate change, could cause the 1.5 °C limit to be exceeded in the next five years. But what are these "children", how do they affect Spain, how long will they last?

The current situation is only the beginning of what may come in the coming decades, which should lead us to increase efforts in mitigation and adaptation strategies: more green and shaded areas, energy efficiency in buildings and avoiding working outdoors in extreme temperatures.