A paper published in Nature presents a machine learning model capable of producing reliable probabilistic weather forecasts. The model, called GenCast, outperforms the most efficient traditional medium-range weather forecasting and is also able to better predict extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind energy production.
A study has analyzed changes in the Earth's average global surface temperature over the past 485 million years and has discovered oscillations ranging from 11°C to 36°C, representing a variation of up to 25°C. The research concludes that temperatures during the Phanerozoic underwent more fluctuations than previously thought and shows a correlation between CO2 and changes in Earth's temperature. The article, published in the journal Science, combines thousands of data points with a modeling method used for weather forecasting.
Starting June 17, the Ministry of Health will begin using a new, more rigorous alert system based on 182 meteosalud zones instead of 52 provinces. The aim is to make the plan more effective, inform the population when necessary, and ultimately save lives.
In 64 % of the cases, the temperature thresholds that define a heatwave according to the Ministry of Health are below the heatwave threshold established by AEMET. This implies that the population does not perceive situations of risk to their health when they do exist.
Two studies published in the journal Nature use artificial intelligence (AI) to try to predict the weather. One system, trained on nearly 40 years of global weather data, is capable of predicting global weather patterns up to a week in advance. The second, called NowcastNet, combines physics rules and deep learning for immediate prediction of precipitation, including extreme precipitation.
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has reported that, from Tuesday, the progressive entry of a mass of very warm and dry air of African origin over the peninsula and the Balearic Islands will cause exceptionally high temperatures for this time of year, with values typical of summer. According to AEMET, during Thursday 27, the threshold of 30 ºC is likely to be exceeded throughout the southern half, as well as on the banks of the Ebro. On the other hand, 35 ºC is likely to extend to the Guadalquivir valley in Córdoba and Jaén. During Friday it is possible that 35 ºC will be exceeded in the banks of the Ebro in Zaragoza and other points of the southern half, in addition to the Guadalquivir valley, where the maximum temperature values could be around 38-40 ºC.
Apart from the disastrous impact of these temperatures on the marine ecosystem, we must ask ourselves whether this will mean an autumn of heavy rainfall and flooding.
Spain is suffering these days a new heat wave that, according to experts, will last at least until Monday and it is not clear when it will end.
A study published in Nature Geoscience shows how climate change is interfering with processes affecting atmospheric circulation and significantly altering the climate in Spain and Portugal. The anomalous expansion of the Azores anticyclone is drying out the Iberian Peninsula and making it increasingly resemble North Africa.
British researchers have analysed the extent to which various types of extreme weather events are attributable to climate change. In the case of heatwaves, they find an unequivocal link. They estimate that the 35 worldwide between 2000 and 2020 have caused at least 157,000 deaths and warn that it is very likely that the impact of this phenomenon is being underestimated.