Dr Friederike Otto is a pioneer in near-real-time attribution studies of extreme weather events. Attribution studies determine the role of climate change in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves or tropical cyclones. This requires two essential sources of information. On the one hand, numerical simulations capable of reproducing the observed extreme event and, on the other hand, observations that allow the different aspects of the event to be characterised.

Limited access to observations has limited and continues to limit further attribution studies to prepare affected sectors for increasingly frequent and intense weather extremes, a consequence of ongoing anthropogenic climate change.

This paper comprehensively reviews the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather and climate events. While the attribution of increased frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves to climate change has high confidence in many regions of the world (including the Mediterranean), the attribution of intense precipitation events (and often associated floods) to climate change is more doubtful in most cases.

For other types of events, such as droughts, forest fires or tropical cyclones, there is even less confidence in their attribution to climate change and more studies are needed in different regions of the globe.

This is the most comprehensive review to date of the understanding of the influences of climate change on five types of extreme weather events: extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, droughts, forest fires and tropical cyclones. This extends both the record of extreme weather impacts worldwide and the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, in particular the global south. The work represents an improvement over the analyses conducted in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Governmental Panel on Climate Change.

It indicates that the attribution of some of these events to a greater or lesser extent to climate change has so far been underestimated.