María José Sanz

The carbon available for emission without exceeding the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement—known as the carbon budget—could be exhausted in just over three years at the current rate of CO₂ emissions. This is one of the conclusions of a new edition of Indicators of Global Climate Change, published in the journal Earth System Science Data. The study also shows that between 2019 and 2024, sea levels rose by an average of around 26 millimetres: more than double the rate of 1.8 mm per year recorded since the beginning of the 20th century.

In the early hours of the morning, after more than two weeks of negotiations and on the verge of collapse, participants at COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan) reached an agreement to set the new climate finance target. In the end, at least 300 billion dollars a year will be contributed by rich countries to the least developed countries until 2035, within a broader global commitment of up to 1.3 trillion dollars directed at these same countries. The renewal of this target was part of the Paris Agreement and will enable governments to support developing countries in their climate action on adaptation, mitigation and damage from the climate crisis. The previous target - set at the Copenhagen Summit in 2009 - was $100 billion per year.

The largest carbon balance report shows that carbon dioxide emissions have not yet peaked and are projected to reach 37.4 billion tonnes by 2024. In a briefing organised by SMC Spain, Pep Canadell, one of the people in charge of the Global Carbon Budget 2024, analysed these data and what Donald Trump's return as US president means for climate action in the framework of COP29 in Baku.

There are still no clear signs that global fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have peaked, according to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget. The report - which is published in the journal Earth System Science Data in preprint format and will be launched at COP29 in Baku - estimates that these emissions will grow by 0.8% this year compared to 2023, to 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂. If this rate continues, there is a 50% chance that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C limit in six years.

The devastating effects caused by the DANA over the peninsula and the Balearic Islands in large parts of the Mediterranean area, especially in the Valencian Community and some regions of Andalusia, are a wake-up call on the relationship between these extreme events and climate change.  

Research published in Nature analyses future scenarios in which the 1.5°C temperature limit set in the Paris Agreement would be temporarily exceeded, assuming that temperatures could be lowered in the long term by reducing carbon dioxide emissions using different techniques. The authors stress that exceeding this threshold would have irreversible consequences for the Earth system in key areas such as biodiversity, sea level and carbon stocks. ‘Only rapid, short-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks,’ they stress in the paper.

Analysis of 1,500 climate policies implemented in 41 countries over the last two decades - between 1998 and 2022 - shows that a small proportion - 63 of them - achieved a significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. The study, published in Science, indicates that a significant decrease in these emissions was recorded in the transport sector in Spain. According to the authors, the combination of several policy instruments is often more effective than the use of single measures.

After an intense night of negotiations in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), the countries participating in COP28 reached a historic agreement by mentioning for the first time "moving away from fossil fuels" in the Global Stocktake document - the assessment of progress made towards achieving the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The agreement comes after the first draft presented by the presidency did not make this mention - it referred only to "reducing consumption and production" of these fuels - which was described as "unacceptable" by countries such as Spain.

At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.

An analysis published in Nature Climate Change estimates that food consumption worldwide could add 1°C to global warming by 2100. The study also says that more than half of this warming could be avoided by adopting a healthy diet, improving food system practices, and reducing food waste.