Spanish Meteorological Association

A study has analysed data on heat waves from 1979 to 2020 and concludes that their propagation speed has decreased over the last 40 years due to anthropogenic causes. In addition, their frequency, intensity and travel distance have increased. According to the authors, "longer-lasting and slower-moving heat waves will cause more devastating effects on natural and social systems in the future if [greenhouse gases] continue to increase and effective mitigation measures are not taken". The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.  

At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.

An attribution study by Climate Central concludes that from November 2022 to October 2023, global temperatures will set a new record, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be the warmest 12-month period on record to date. The analysis shows that during this period, 5.7 billion people were exposed to at least 30 days of above-average temperatures, including most of the Spanish population.

The projection of a 2 °C rise in temperatures due to climate change would put 53 % of ski resorts in Europe, including Spanish resorts, at serious risk due to lack of snow. The percentage would rise to 98 % if the increase were 4 °C, according to the conclusions of a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The use of artificial snow on 50 % of a resort's surface would reduce the percentage of resorts at risk by approximately 25 %, although it would increase energy expenditure and carbon emissions.

An attribution study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) concludes that the heatwaves in Europe and North America this July would have been "almost impossible" without climate change. Over the past few weeks, southern Europe, parts of the United States, Mexico and China have experienced severe heatwaves with temperatures exceeding 45 °C. The WWA report notes that in China the heatwave was at least 50 times more likely due to the climate crisis.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has declared the onset of El Niño conditions on Tuesday. "The declaration of El Niño by the WMO is the signal for governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. According to the WMO statement, El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely rise in global temperatures and altered weather and climate patterns.

A study concludes that climate change will lead to less precipitation in the form of snow and more extreme rainfall events, especially at high altitudes in the northern hemisphere, increasing the risk of floods, landslides and infrastructure damage. According to the authors, this is the first time this risk of extreme precipitation in liquid and solid form has been studied separately. Their calculations indicate that for each degree of temperature increase, the risk of extreme rainfall in high-altitude regions will increase by 15 %. The authors publish their results in the journal Nature.

Fifty-three per cent of the world's largest lakes and reservoirs have lost water between 1992 and 2020, according to a study combining satellite observations, climate data and hydrological models. These results suggest a global trend towards more extensive desiccation than previously thought, in both arid and humid areas, the research team says in the journal Science. The authors also share an online map that includes trends for large freshwater reservoirs in Spain, such as the Iznájar (Córdoba), Mequinenza (Zaragoza) and Valdecañas (Cáceres) reservoirs.

Climate change made the late April episode of record temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula, Morocco and Algeria 100 times more likely to occur, with temperatures up to 3.5°C higher than they would have been without the climate crisis. This is one of the conclusions of an attribution study conducted by World Weather Attribution.

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has reported that, from Tuesday, the progressive entry of a mass of very warm and dry air of African origin over the peninsula and the Balearic Islands will cause exceptionally high temperatures for this time of year, with values typical of summer. According to AEMET, during Thursday 27, the threshold of 30 ºC is likely to be exceeded throughout the southern half, as well as on the banks of the Ebro. On the other hand, 35 ºC is likely to extend to the Guadalquivir valley in Córdoba and Jaén. During Friday it is possible that 35 ºC will be exceeded in the banks of the Ebro in Zaragoza and other points of the southern half, in addition to the Guadalquivir valley, where the maximum temperature values could be around 38-40 ºC.