Spanish Meteorological Association

The Global Carbon Budget's projections for 2025 estimate that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels will reach a new all-time high of 38.1 billion tons, an increase of 1.1% over 2024. This global report—now in its 20th edition and to be presented at COP30 in Belém, Brazil—estimates that emissions in the United States and the European Union will grow this year, in contrast to the decline in previous years, partly due to weather conditions and higher energy consumption. The study is published in the journal Earth System Science Data in preprint format.

At the current rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the 1.5°C temperature increase limit set in the Paris Agreement will be exceeded in four years. This is one of the predictions of the Global Carbon Budget 2025, the global report on the carbon balance, now in its 20th edition, which will be presented at COP30 in Belém (Brazil). Pep Canadell, one of its authors, analyzed its findings at a briefing organized by SMC Spain.

Lakes are considered sentinels of climate change, although most research has focused on temperate regions. An international team analysed 10 tropical lakes in the central Amazon during the 2023 drought, which caused high mortality among fish and river dolphins. Using satellite data and hydrodynamic models, the authors show how intense drought and a heatwave combined to raise water temperatures: five of the 10 lakes experienced very high daytime temperatures, exceeding 37°C. Specifically, temperatures in the shallow waters of Lake Tefé soared to 41°C—hotter than a thermal bath. The study is published in Science.

COP30 will kick off on 10 November in Belém, a Brazilian city and gateway to the Amazon. Expectations are high because it coincides with the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, whose goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C was shattered in 2024. In addition, this year countries must present a new version of their measures to combat climate change in a turbulent geopolitical context, marked by the Trump administration's abandonment of the climate agenda.

Climate change has made the hot, dry and windy weather conditions that spread fires across the Iberian Peninsula 40 times more frequent and 30% more intense than in the pre-industrial climate, according to a rapid study by World Weather Attribution. The ten-day heatwave was also 200 times more likely and 3°C hotter due to climate change. The study, which analysed weather observations rather than climate models, warns that fires in Europe are overwhelming firefighting resources and highlights the importance of controlling vegetation in affected areas.

The carbon available for emission without exceeding the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement—known as the carbon budget—could be exhausted in just over three years at the current rate of CO₂ emissions. This is one of the conclusions of a new edition of Indicators of Global Climate Change, published in the journal Earth System Science Data. The study also shows that between 2019 and 2024, sea levels rose by an average of around 26 millimetres: more than double the rate of 1.8 mm per year recorded since the beginning of the 20th century.

Atmospheric evaporative demand is a measure of the atmosphere's ability to extract moisture from the soil and influences the availability of water on the Earth's surface. An international team has analysed global drought data from 1901 to 2022 and found that this demand has contributed to a 40% increase in drought severity since 1981. Furthermore, this trend is accelerating and will most likely continue due to climate change, according to the authors. The results are published in the journal Nature.

An international team has analyzed the sudden changes in temperature that occurred in the world between 1961 and 2023. Their conclusions are that more than 60% of the regions included in the analysis - including Western Europe - have experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of these sudden changes, which can endanger health, agriculture or infrastructures. Moreover, the trend will continue to rise as a result of climate change. The results are published in the journal Nature Communications.

The year 2024 was the warmest year in Europe, with record temperatures in almost half of the continent, according to the European State of the Climate 2024, published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The report highlights 2024 as one of the ten wettest years since 1950 and estimates that storms and floods affected 413,000 people in Europe and at least 335 people lost their lives.

Clear evidence of human-induced climate change reached new heights in 2024 and some of the consequences will be irreversible for hundreds or thousands of years, according to the World Meteorological Organisation's State of the Global Climate 2024 report. It also highlights the enormous economic and social impacts of extreme weather conditions.