No matter how we look at global temperature and its evolution in the years ahead, with these new studies and everything we already knew there is now ample evidence that the Paris Agreement's most important goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C has been missed. And, unless more aggressive action on mitigation is taken quickly, so too will the goal of avoiding temperatures below 2ºC. 

This is not a reason to throw in the towel, but rather to sharpen the climate and energy policies that will lead us to a decarbonised world. 

Climate change is like a slippery slope with no bottom, so there is no limit to the damage it can do to our economy, health and environment. What we want to do is to apply the brakes as hard as we can so that the impacts don't get any bigger.

One of the submissions points out that it is very likely that we are already within the 20-year window in which the average temperature will exceed 1.5°C, according to the scenarios we are observing. This trend can only be corrected by extremely drastic emission reduction measures. The other study mentions that having 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C anomaly indicates that it is very likely that we have already passed the 1.5°C threshold (the 20-year average). The studies are based on models calibrated with observations and natural variability.  

While we might think that an anomaly of 1.5°C in a single year should not cause alarm because next year the temperature may fall, these studies tell us the opposite: if we have reached that level this year, it is likely that we have already exceeded the threshold. Unfortunately, this means that the urgency intensifies. We do not want to go significantly above 1.5°C because, beyond that point, the consequences become enormously complicated, and the only viable solution right now is to drastically reduce emissions.