Ernesto Rodríguez Camino
Senior State Meteorologist and president of Spanish Meteorological Association
The rapid attribution study conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA) of the extreme heat event of 26-28 April 2023 that affected the Iberian Peninsula concludes that anthropogenic climate change makes the probability of such an event at least 100 times higher in a context of climate change than in the absence of climate change, so that it would have been almost impossible to have taken place without climate change.
The rapid attribution methodology developed by WWA has passed all filters associated with peer review, has been applied on many other occasions, is well-tested and scientifically sound. The methodology is based on using pre-calculated simulations - in this case, from CMIP6 - to avoid performing slow and computationally expensive simulations, and thus to be able to conduct the study in near-real time.
In addition, to avoid the collection of observational data that may delay the study, use is made of the ERA5 reanalysis extended with the operational analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts between 1 and 27 April and, in turn, extended with the forecast for 28-30 April.
Regarding the denomination of heat wave or extreme high temperature event, this is merely a terminological difference as there is no standardised and internationally recognised definition of heat wave. AEMET, for example, for its definition refers daily maximum temperatures to the months of July and August, so that the AEMET definition of heat wave can hardly be applied to hot episodes in months other than those of the summer period.