Reacción a "The number of people with Parkinson's disease will exceed 25 million worldwide by 2050"

This study, published in the BMJ, a prestigious scientific journal subject to a rigorous peer review process, estimates that Parkinson's disease will increase globally by 76% by 2050, reaching 25.2 million sufferers worldwide. These findings reinforce previous predictions that point to a significant growth in cases worldwide, driven mainly by the ageing of the population. Remember that Parkinson's is a neurodegenerative disease that seriously affects the quality of life of those who suffer from it and, to date, has no cure. Treatment focuses on managing the symptoms, which makes specialised medical care and research essential to improve the prognosis for patients.

The study is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, a recognised source in the field of epidemiological research, widely supported by the scientific community. Thanks to an advanced statistical methodology, which includes Bayesian modelling and the use of several predictive models, the researchers have been able to estimate the future incidence of the disease. This is key for health systems around the world to be able to anticipate the challenges posed by the growing number of cases. The authors, however, recognise certain limitations in their research, such as the lack of robust data on additional risk factors beyond smoking and physical activity, which were considered. Furthermore, the projection model does not incorporate other potentially relevant risk variables, which could lead to an underestimation of some of the determining factors in the progression of the disease. The scarcity of data in certain inaccessible rural areas is also highlighted, which could introduce a bias in the estimates. Likewise, and given that the diagnosis of Parkinson's is not simple and there is no specific test to confirm the disease, the clinical criteria considered could generate variations in the reported prevalence rates. With the advancement of research and the development of more precise biomarkers, it is likely that future estimates will be adjusted to more accurately reflect the epidemiological reality.

The conclusions of the study confirm existing scientific evidence: Parkinson's is more prevalent in older men and its development is closely linked to the ageing of the population. However, the study also highlights the importance of other risk factors, such as exposure to pesticides, an aspect that the scientific community has been pointing out for years. One of the main warnings of this study is that countries must prepare for an increase in the demand for medical care and specialised services for Parkinson's disease. This will imply a greater investment in human resources and infrastructures, as well as an increase in the financing of scientific research to develop better prevention and treatment strategies.

In this sense, the study also highlights the importance of improving prevention and control strategies, focusing on modifiable risk factors such as smoking and a sedentary lifestyle. Taking action on these elements could contribute to reducing the global burden of the disease. Finally, the researchers point out the heterogeneity in the prevalence of Parkinson's in terms of geographical location and socioeconomic level, which highlights the need to address health inequalities and develop specific policies to attend to the most vulnerable populations.

In short, this study provides key information for the planning of health systems and reinforces the importance of research and prevention in the fight against Parkinson's disease. In short, what they are telling us is that, looking to the future and with regard to Parkinson's disease, forewarned is forearmed and without scientific research there is no future.