This study, published in the BMJ, a prestigious scientific journal subject to a rigorous peer review process, estimates that Parkinson's disease will increase globally by 76% by 2050, reaching 25.2 million sufferers worldwide. These findings reinforce previous predictions that point to a significant growth in cases worldwide, driven mainly by the ageing of the population. Remember that Parkinson's is a neurodegenerative disease that seriously affects the quality of life of those who suffer from it and, to date, has no cure. Treatment focuses on managing the symptoms, which makes specialised medical care and research essential to improve the prognosis for patients.

The study is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, a recognised source in the field of epidemiological research, widely supported by the scientific community. Thanks to an advanced statistical methodology, which includes Bayesian modelling and the use of several predictive models, the researchers have been able to estimate the future incidence of the disease. This is key for health systems around the world to be able to anticipate the challenges posed by the growing number of cases. The authors, however, recognise certain limitations in their research, such as the lack of robust data on additional risk factors beyond smoking and physical activity, which were considered. Furthermore, the projection model does not incorporate other potentially relevant risk variables, which could lead to an underestimation of some of the determining factors in the progression of the disease. The scarcity of data in certain inaccessible rural areas is also highlighted, which could introduce a bias in the estimates. Likewise, and given that the diagnosis of Parkinson's is not simple and there is no specific test to confirm the disease, the clinical criteria considered could generate variations in the reported prevalence rates. With the advancement of research and the development of more precise biomarkers, it is likely that future estimates will be adjusted to more accurately reflect the epidemiological reality.

The conclusions of the study confirm existing scientific evidence: Parkinson's is more prevalent in older men and its development is closely linked to the ageing of the population. However, the study also highlights the importance of other risk factors, such as exposure to pesticides, an aspect that the scientific community has been pointing out for years. One of the main warnings of this study is that countries must prepare for an increase in the demand for medical care and specialised services for Parkinson's disease. This will imply a greater investment in human resources and infrastructures, as well as an increase in the financing of scientific research to develop better prevention and treatment strategies.

In this sense, the study also highlights the importance of improving prevention and control strategies, focusing on modifiable risk factors such as smoking and a sedentary lifestyle. Taking action on these elements could contribute to reducing the global burden of the disease. Finally, the researchers point out the heterogeneity in the prevalence of Parkinson's in terms of geographical location and socioeconomic level, which highlights the need to address health inequalities and develop specific policies to attend to the most vulnerable populations.

In short, this study provides key information for the planning of health systems and reinforces the importance of research and prevention in the fight against Parkinson's disease. In short, what they are telling us is that, looking to the future and with regard to Parkinson's disease, forewarned is forearmed and without scientific research there is no future.

A study carried out by Chinese researchers from different universities and research centres estimates an increase in the number of Parkinson's disease cases worldwide between now and 2050.

It has been estimated that in Western Europe the general population will increase by 3% by 2050, while in the same period of time the population over 65 years of age will increase by 100%. This inevitably leads to an exponential increase in the expected number of cases of Parkinson's disease, given that old age is the main known risk factor for Parkinson's disease.

The projections in this article are very important in terms of scaling up public and private healthcare systems, to the extent necessary, in order to provide the healthcare that is needed. Note that, in parallel, the expected high incidence of Parkinson's in the coming years will also entail a considerable social cost, stemming from the fact that the carers of such patients, especially those in advanced stages of the disease, are often first-degree relatives.

Among the data provided by this study, those corresponding to Spain are particularly striking, a country that currently has 200,000 diagnosed cases and is expected to reach an estimated 350,000 by 2050. In this way, Spain, which is currently in tenth place worldwide in terms of the number of diagnosed cases, will climb to eighth place by 2050. Neighbouring countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom are also in the top 10 in terms of the number of current and expected cases in 2050. Due to the total number of citizens in countries such as the People's Republic of China, the United States and India, these three countries occupy the first three places in this ranking. Emerging economies such as Indonesia and Brazil will reach important positions in the top 10 from 2030 onwards.

Because Parkinson's is considered an idiopathic disease (i.e. of unknown cause), it is difficult to implement preventive strategies against the disease. As the authors reflect in this article, the current and more pragmatic approach in research is to try to find neuroprotective treatments, designed to slow or even halt the natural progressive course that characterises the disease. This is the main approach adopted by numerous research groups around the world, as well as that of my research group at the Centre for Applied Medical Research of the University of Navarra, where we work with an eye on the unmet medical needs of our patients.

Finally, it is necessary to emphasise that Spain is among the leading countries in Parkinson's disease research, and that our public and private healthcare systems have numerous clinical specialists of international prestige.