Reacción a "Forest fires and pest outbreaks could double in Europe before the end of this century"

In recent decades, hundreds of scientific papers have been published analysing how anthropogenic climate change and other factors linked to global change are altering or may alter the composition, structure and functioning of forests. Although the effects found vary depending on the region, the spatial or temporal scale of analysis, or the type of system studied, the underlying message is consistent: we are heading towards a more variable and uncertain future. In this context, disturbance regimes, i.e. the frequency, intensity and duration of phenomena such as fires or forest pests, are set to play a central role in the transformation of European forests.

This article addresses this issue with unusual ambition and scope. Its authors attempt to anticipate how some of the main disturbances affecting European forests—forest fires, pests and windstorms—might evolve throughout the 21st century. Their results point to significant, albeit uneven, increases in the forest area subject to more severe disturbances under three different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). According to their predictions, between 50 and 70 per cent of areas with Mediterranean, boreal and temperate forests will be subject to more severe disturbances. Mediterranean regions appear to be the most affected, but the results show that temperate and boreal areas will not be spared from these changes either. In fact, the increase in the area affected by intense disturbances is reproduced, to varying degrees, in the three scenarios considered. Furthermore, the results show that forest fires are the most significant disturbance among those studied in the future of European forests. While it is prudent to interpret these projections with caution, the consistency and magnitude of the trends they find make it difficult to dismiss them.

From a personal perspective, I consider the results related to the demography of European forests to be particularly relevant. The study suggests that rising temperatures and disturbances could lead to a continent with younger forests on average. This is no minor issue: the maturity of a forest is closely linked to many of the benefits that society derives from it. Mature forests, for example, harbour higher levels of biomass and therefore carbon, but also greater structural complexity and support high levels of biodiversity. According to the results of this article, temperature increases of around +3 °C would lead to an increase of ~18% in the proportion of young forests in the Mediterranean region and ~5% across Europe. If these projections are confirmed, we would not only be facing a change in the frequency of fires or pests, but also a profound transformation in the structure and functioning of European forest ecosystems, and by extension of the landscapes of which they form part, with far-reaching ecological and social implications.