Autor/es reacciones

Pablo Ortega

Co-leader of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center's Climate Change and Prediction Group

This study reviews the most common methods used to predict, from observational data, the possible occurrence of irreversible or abrupt changes in the climate system, such as those associated with a collapse of ocean circulation.

By rigorously considering the various methodological uncertainties, the study highlights that these methods are not completely reliable and may erroneously predict the occurrence of such events. This study therefore calls for caution in investigating and communicating the likelihood of such irreversible events occurring in the near future.

It comes at a good time after the media hype surrounding recent claims of an imminent collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

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