Climate tipping points are thresholds at which elements of the Earth could reach a point of no return, accelerated by climate change and with consequences for the rest of the planet. These drastic changes could affect, for example, the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), polar ice sheets or tropical rainforests. A study published in Science Advances concludes that there is too much uncertainty to extrapolate historical data and reliably estimate when these inflections will occur.
Pablo Ortega - tipping points EN
Pablo Ortega
Co-leader of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center's Climate Change and Prediction Group
This study reviews the most common methods used to predict, from observational data, the possible occurrence of irreversible or abrupt changes in the climate system, such as those associated with a collapse of ocean circulation.
By rigorously considering the various methodological uncertainties, the study highlights that these methods are not completely reliable and may erroneously predict the occurrence of such events. This study therefore calls for caution in investigating and communicating the likelihood of such irreversible events occurring in the near future.
It comes at a good time after the media hype surrounding recent claims of an imminent collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
- Modelling
Maya Ben-Yami et al.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
- Modelling
