Reacción a "So far this year, almost 120,000 hectares have been destroyed by fire in Spain – one of the highest figures recorded for this time of year"

July isn’t even over yet, and in Spain almost 120,000 hectares have been burnt so far this year. Did you expect a summer like this?

“We know that the area burnt is increasing and will continue to do so. It’s worth noting that we haven’t yet reached a record figure. In other words, although over the previous decade the annual average was 100,000 hectares burnt throughout the summer, what we have seen in the 2022 and 2025 seasons has been an increase in the area burnt; and in 2022, for example, the area burnt was greater than it is at this point in the year.

We can predict that the area burnt will continue to increase in the coming years if no action is taken, because the intensity of the fires is increasing. The areas where we are likely to see the greatest increases in the area burnt are mountainous, high-altitude regions, which traditionally did not burn because they were very damp. We are talking about areas such as the Pyrenees, the Central Mountain Range, or the Cantabrian Mountains, to give just three examples. As fuel accumulates due to rural depopulation, and as that fuel becomes increasingly dry due to climate change, we will face a greater likelihood of megafires, or extreme fires, because it is in these areas that the greatest accumulations of fuel are found.

Although it is difficult to predict exactly how far this might go, before long we will no longer be able to rule out nightmarish scenarios such as those currently unfolding in California or Australia, with fires or fire complexes covering hundreds of thousands of hectares or even a million hectares. Last year, for example, we saw several fire fronts, each covering tens of thousands of hectares, which, had they merged (and some came very close to doing so), would have resulted in fire complexes of over 100,000 hectares – and that is the situation we currently find ourselves in.”

What has gone wrong with prevention?

“Planning and implementation have failed in the area of prevention. We know what we have to do: we have to manage, at the very least, around one million hectares, and we have to do so intelligently, across different scales. At national or regional level, we need to create containment corridors to break the potential continuity of these mega-fires that can burn tens or hundreds of thousands of hectares.

At the mountain range level, we must focus on strategic management points where fires can spread rapidly, including fire and fuel management as a key aspect within protected areas as well. And at the local level, we must concentrate on municipal prevention plans to protect villages, housing estates and homes scattered throughout the countryside.”

What are your forecasts for the rest of the summer?

“The rest of the summer will be determined by weather conditions and the sources of ignition. For example, last year, from 8 August onwards, a series of fire fronts broke out simultaneously because we experienced a series of thunderstorms that provided numerous ignition points, and this had been preceded by a heatwave that had dried out the fuel.

Therefore, if this year sees a repeat of the scenario involving thunderstorms, combined with heatwaves, we can expect a summer similar to last year’s – or worse – if several fire fronts converge, as we mentioned earlier. Historically, the Mediterranean region has suffered its worst fires in early July and the north-west in August, so we can expect a shift in the fires from the east towards the north-west (although some Mediterranean autonomous communities, such as Andalusia, have also suffered mega-fires in September). However, if it starts to rain and dampen the fuel, we will see the fire season go into hibernation, at least for a few weeks.”