Reacción a "A new study concludes that climate change intensified the flooding caused by the dana in Valencia in 2024"

From a communication perspective, not all the impacts of ongoing anthropogenic climate change mobilise society to the same extent. Research in social psychology, communication and public opinion shows that people are more likely to respond when they perceive threats as closer, more tangible and emotionally comprehensible. In this regard, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events help raise awareness and galvanise public concern about the seriousness of climate change. The October 2024 flooding episode in Valencia —which, in addition to the death toll, produced highly emotive images of widespread destruction— is a clear example of the importance of establishing a direct link between such events and contemporary climate change.

The authors refer to earlier attribution studies of this same episode conducted in near real time by the ClimaMeter and World Weather Attribution initiatives, which were instrumental in establishing from the outset a probabilistic link between the event and climate change. However, those studies —based on observations or pre-computed simulations— lack the level of detail and resolution provided by the present research. By using kilometre-scale simulations and sub-daily analysis, this study enables a more refined understanding of the underlying physical processes. It therefore represents a significant step forward in clarifying the connection between this specific episode and climate change.

That said, the methodology applied —based on the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach— imposes important constraints on the dynamical aspects of such events, including the trajectories of the cut-off lows that lay at the origin of this particular case. This study thus constitutes a further —highly useful and valuable— step in the attribution of the event, but it will need to be complemented in future by additional research that overcomes the limitations inherent in the PGW methodology.