Cristina Santín Nuño
Tenured Scientist and Honorary Associate Professor at the Joint Research Institute for Biodiversity (University of Oviedo–CSIC–Principality of Asturias) and Swansea University (United Kingdom)
Does the press release accurately reflect the study?
“Yes. In addition to these figures, I think it is also interesting to look at the data presented for Spain, as it is one of the European countries most affected by the increased risk of wildfires associated with climate change: in our country, the increase in exposure to extreme weather conditions conducive to wildfires for a person born in 2025, compared with someone born in 1950, will not be three years, but 7.3 years – that is, more than double the European average”.
Is the study of high quality? Are the conclusions backed by solid data?
“Yes. This study uses a methodology that has been extensively tested in research into how the climate and climate change affect fire risk. For me, its main novelty or appeal lies in the fact that they have placed these figures in the context of the lifespan (life expectancy or lifetime) of two generations: the generation now aged around 70–80 and the one that has just been born. In doing so, they highlight the vast intergenerational inequality caused by climate change: the generations that have contributed most to it are the ones who will suffer the least from it.”
How does this study fit in with the existing evidence?
“It aligns very well with everything science has taught us so far. Climate change is an undeniable key factor in the worsening of the conditions that lead to wildfires, not only in Spain and Europe, but almost everywhere in the world.”
Are there any significant limitations to bear in mind?
“I am not a climatologist, so I cannot comment on the methodology or the technical aspects. But, as I have already said, the methodology is standard and widely validated and used, and the group of authors is highly reputable.”
What are the implications for the real world?
“The implications are that climate change will make life more difficult for the children and grandchildren of those who have contributed most to it, but the good news is that the future is yet to be written and that, together, we can work to reduce these negative impacts.”