Reacción a "Forest fires and pest outbreaks could double in Europe before the end of this century"

The recent study led by Marc Grünig and Rupert Seidl (Technical University of Munich), with the participation of Spanish entities (CREAF, Centre for Forest Science and Technology of Catalonia, University of Girona), indicates that, under high emission scenarios, forest disturbances in Europe – especially fires and pests – could increase significantly throughout the century. It should be noted that the projections are based on a recent period (2001-2020) that has already been severely affected, which underscores the seriousness of the findings. However, as with all modelling studies, it should be remembered that these are projections based on climate scenarios, not exact predictions.

The fact that this study is published in Science and uses IPCC climate scenarios indicates that the work has undergone rigorous review and is based on sound scientific frameworks. Even so, the results depend on the model's assumptions, for example, that forest management will remain largely unchanged. The authors have probably taken multiple factors into account (climate, forest structure, pest dynamics), but there are always uncertainties associated with the actual ecological response, socio-economic developments and possible adaptation measures that could modify the predicted trajectories.

This work is consistent with extensive previous evidence pointing to an increased risk of fires and insect pest outbreaks in a warmer and drier climate, especially in the Mediterranean region. Its implications are significant: an increase in disturbances can reduce the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks, affect biodiversity and generate economic impacts. At the same time, the study reinforces an important message for journalists and policymakers: the magnitude of the impact depends largely on future emissions and forest management, which means that there is still room for action to limit the risks.