Autor/es reacciones

Darío Redolat

Climate change and meteorology consultant

One of the advantages of the PBC method is that it is not limited to correcting an average value; rather, it adjusts both the most probable result and the uncertainty associated with it. To do so, it learns from past errors and takes into account recent weather trends and the typical climate of each location. It is a lightweight method that can be updated with new data without having to rerun the entire weather model, although, as we have already mentioned, it always needs to rely on a model and does not function independently. Its value also lies in the fact that it has been tested not only with historical data but also with real-time forecasts, before the actual weather conditions were known. Furthermore, improvements are evident in different regions and times of year, even in models that had already been corrected previously.  
  
The results of this study are promising, although the method remains in the experimental phase and has been tested primarily using historical weather reconstructions. Therefore, it is advisable to view the large percentage improvements with caution and to continue studying how it performs in other regions, at finer scales, and in the face of extreme weather events.

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