Reacción a "Babies born in Spain will now experience twice as many extreme weather events linked to wildfires as their grandparents did"

Does the press release accurately reflect the study?

“Yes, the press release accurately reflects the content of the article to which it refers.”

Is the study of good quality? Are the conclusions supported by robust data?

“The article is of high quality and the conclusions are consistent with the data obtained. However, the severity of fires is determined by many factors other than temperature and heatwaves.”

How does this work fit in with existing evidence?

“There are many other determining factors beyond temperatures or heatwaves. National, regional or global policies to combat climate change may progress more quickly or more slowly depending on many factors, including technological advances, patents, cooperation, and other conflicts that hinder progress, etc., which are difficult or even impossible to predict. There are other key factors affecting the Earth’s climate, such as tropical ocean currents (El Niño and La Niña), volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, etc., which mask the final outcome of the specific climate in every part of the planet at any given time. Higher temperatures mean, at least in the Mediterranean region, increased rainfall, which can mitigate one of the most significant factors contributing to wildfires: drought.

The growth of forest areas—in terms of both extent and density (hectares and m3/ha)—and their structure is, in many cases, a more significant factor in the severity of fires than the specific temperature. Higher temperatures lead to more lightning strikes, particularly in the case of dry thunderstorms; however, these are characterised by a high degree of randomness, as we have seen in the current season compared with the previous one in Spain.

Although, unfortunately, the latest ten-year series on wildfires in Spain published by MITECO are not available, we can see that if we compare the last two periods—1996–2005 and 2006–2015— the number of fires has fallen by 37 per cent and their total area by 12 per cent in Spain over a period when climate change was already fully apparent, with 2003 being a particularly notable year. We are aware of many fires that occur at low temperatures, both in North America and, for example, the Espadán fire (1981) in December; the tramontana fires in Girona, which, although they occur in summer, are characterised by low temperatures; or the largest fire in Spain until a few years ago, the Ayora fire (September 1979), which was caused by a lightning strike triggered by a cold front.”

What are the implications for the real world?

“By focusing solely on one variable (temperature), the specific implications are limited.”