Eduardo Rojas Briales
Lecturer at the Polytechnic University of Valencia and former Deputy Director-General of the FAO
Is the research of high quality?
“The research is based on meteorological and atmospheric analyses carried out in record time. It is limited to this aspect of the fires, without taking into account others such as topography, fuel load and continuity, ignition, or the complex situation posed by an urban-forest interface fire such as the one in western Madrid.
It is claimed that meteorological severity was 20 times greater than in pre-industrial times. However, there is a lack of detailed meteorological data from that period, and it is only through indirect evidence that we can ascertain the average temperature, but not the fluctuations that occur over relatively short timeframes such as heatwaves (7–10 days).
There is talk of extremely low rainfall in July, ignoring the fact that south of the 40th parallel – where the major fire in western Madrid occurred – average July rainfall has been negligible for as long as records have been kept (INM 1931–60), that is, less than 10 mm for the month as a whole.”
How does this fit with the existing evidence?
“All data on the area burnt comes from Copernicus, which essentially identifies the perimeter of the fire very quickly, but does not cross-check this against land-use data, nor does it assess areas within the fire that have only been superficially burnt—such as stubble fields in cereal crops, which obviously do not result in the loss of forests. It should be noted that in 2025—cited as a record year in Spain—Copernicus reported 400,000 hectares, but MITECO subsequently reduced the area to 300,000 hectares of forest, of which only one-third—that is, 100,000 hectares—was actually forested.
It is not possible to attribute causes to the fires within such a short timeframe, as these are merely working hypotheses put forward by the security forces or even media reports, which will take time to be confirmed or refuted.
The very nature of an urban-forest interface fire in an area with a high number of scattered dwellings in rural/forested terrain – following another recent fire that claimed a significant number of lives and had a considerable impact on tourism in Spain – entails, on the one hand, significant social and media pressure and, on the other, the obvious risk that the fire will be left unattended during the crucial initial hours, making it impossible to extinguish within a reasonable timeframe – a situation that has more to do with prioritising people and homes over forest and agricultural areas”.
What are the implications for fire management?
“Firefighting specialists recognise that global warming and the increased instability of the atmosphere exacerbate critical weather conditions should a spark end up causing a forest fire. But for this to happen – and, above all, for it to develop into a mega-fire – it is necessary that the fire is not tackled (or cannot be tackled) correctly at the outset in an area with substantial resources, and that there is an irresponsible vertical and horizontal continuity of combustible material ready to burn.”
Are there any significant limitations that need to be taken into account?
“Relying solely on meteorological analyses without considering the specific conditions of the fire and the affected area, as well as the management of the fire-fighting operation.”