Reacción a "Reactions: 50% chance of warming exceeding 1.5°C within seven years"

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere is essential to better understand the global carbon cycle in a changing climate, to support climate policy development and to estimate future climate change. The data provided in this paper show that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase globally, although they are falling in some regions, such as Europe and the US, demonstrating that climate action to cut fossil fuel use is not happening at the rate required to limit climate change to the levels set out in the Paris Agreement. 

The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere, arguably the part of the balance sheet best determined by direct measurements, continues to increase, reaching 419.3 parts per million in 2023, representing 51% above pre-industrial levels. Of the total CO₂ emissions, about half remain in the atmosphere increasing in concentration, while the other half are absorbed by oceanic and terrestrial sinks. In short, the observation of atmospheric CO₂ concentration provides us with a very accurate picture of the progress of climate action in reducing CO₂ emissions, and this picture is still very negative.  

Also very negative are the data on emissions from forest fires, which in 2023 were of an exceptionally alarming magnitude, especially in Canada, and the low impact of carbon dioxide removal techniques (excluding natural solutions such as reforestation).  

The data shown indicate that, globally speaking, we are by no means on track to reach the net-zero emissions required to stay within the warming limits prescribed by the Paris Agreement, although there are some positive glimmers of hope as global emissions (including from fossil fuels and land-use change) show signs of reaching a plateau, although still far short of the drastic reductions that would be needed to meet net-zero emissions targets by mid-century.