Reacción a "A study calculates how agricultural employment will change due to the transition to healthier and more sustainable diets"

The study makes a contribution of remarkable methodological quality by analysing how the global transition towards more plant-based diets could alter the structure of agricultural employment. The work combines detailed inventories of labour requirements with a global biophysical model of food systems, offering a country-by-country map of possible changes in labour demand. This approach has the merit of quantifying a phenomenon that has been little explored (the relationship between dietary transformation and the structure of rural employment), although it should be read as a simulation exercise, not a prediction. The model does not incorporate the price, productivity or technological substitution responses that characterise the real dynamics of labour and agricultural markets.

In general terms, the authors conclude that the reduction in intensive livestock farming would decrease overall labour demand by between 5% and 28%, while the expansion of horticulture could generate between 18 and 56 million new jobs. This shift in labour reflects a process of reallocation rather than a net loss, provided that there is capacity for adaptation and well-designed transition policies. The magnitudes are consistent with historical evidence of structural changes in agriculture, where improved productivity and mechanisation have reduced employment but increased value added and income.

For Spain, the impact would likely be limited, given the high degree of mechanisation, productive diversification and the lower relative weight of extensive livestock farming compared to other countries. However, some regions could experience significant adjustments. The key will be to combine sustainability and efficiency: accompanying the transformation of the food system with technological innovation, job training and trade liberalisation, avoiding rigid regulatory approaches that distort resource allocation or compromise the competitiveness of the agricultural sector.