Reacción a "A study attributes the “extreme” weather conditions that fuelled the fires in Spain and France to climate change"

According to a new analysis by World Weather Attribution, human-induced climate change has significantly intensified the major wildfires that have recently devastated vast areas of central Spain and south-western France. The fires, described as among the worst ever recorded in both countries, have claimed several lives, destroyed thousands of homes and forced the evacuation of more than 300,000 people. The analysis examines historical weather patterns to assess how fire-prone weather conditions have changed over time. To do this, the researchers used a Daily Severity Rating (DSR), which incorporates heat, dryness and wind conditions, and reflects the difficulty of extinguishing a fire once it has started. The researchers analysed the seven-day period with the highest DSR in the regions where the fires occurred.

The report states that climate change has led to extreme weather conditions conducive to the occurrence of these fires. Under current climate conditions, such high-intensity fires are expected to occur approximately once every six years in central Spain and once every 20 years in south-western France. This demonstrates that climate change is not only intensifying individual fires but is also increasing their synchronisation across all regions, thereby exacerbating the humanitarian and environmental consequences.

Science is, by its very nature, very cautious when it comes to establishing causality. This scientific caution is particularly evident in the field of climate change science, despite the wealth of evidence of a climate crisis that has accumulated over recent decades. Attribution studies, such as those by the WWA, are not based on opinions or viewpoints, but apply rigorous methodologies and only publish results when the scientific evidence is robust. It is an approach designed not to exaggerate in the slightest: if something cannot be proven with a high degree of certainty, it is simply not claimed. That is why, when such a rigorous and cautious organisation concludes that, under current climate conditions, high-intensity wildfires are expected to occur approximately once every 20 years in south-western France and once every six years in central Spain, or that the conditions that fuelled the wildfires in Spain and Portugal in 2025 are 40 times more likely due to climate change, this is not an exaggeration: it is, if anything, a conservative estimate.

A report such as this is only published if the evidence is solid. The fact that the most cautious scientific community is issuing such a stark warning should not only alarm us, but spur us to act now, by cutting emissions and preparing our ecosystems and societies for the stark reality that is already upon us.