Nils Christian Stenseth
Is the study of high quality? Are the conclusions supported by robust data?
"I find this a fascinating study of high quality. They have for sure not proved that it is pneumonic plague, but they have strong reasons to assume so based upon the mathematical modelling. It is important to be aware of the fact that in the 19th century the pneumonic plague form what not known – this plague form was first discovered in 1910 by the Chinese professor Wu Lien-teh, a discovery for which he was nominated for the Nobel prize in medicine and physiology (but unfortunately didn’t get it).
I find it interesting that they quite convincingly document that rats or other rodents could not have been involved in the spread of the bacterium between people. Hence, spread between people might likely have been by droplets and/or human ectoparasites such as body flea and lice. This is an important part of the contribution as it clearly shows that rats and other rodents could not have been part of the spread of the bacterium in the human population.
The study is important in showing that archival records can be used for epidemiological modelling, thus making the findings more quantitative".
Are there any significant limitations to bear in mind?
"The limitation is that there in no proof of pneumonic plague – only indications (but rather strong indications)".
What are the implications of the findings?
"Human plague is the most devastating infectious disease though history – as such this study helps us understand our human history better".