If effective strategies are not developed, more than 1.3 billion people will be living with diabetes by 2050, some 800 million more than today. This is according to the lead study in a set of papers published in The Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. In addition, 75% of these people will live in low- and middle-income countries, which is largely due to "structural racism and inequality", according to the editorial accompanying the studies.
Fernando Gómez Peralta - diabetes previsiones EN
Fernando Gómez Peralta
Coordinator of the Diabetes Area of the Spanish Society of Endocrinology and Nutrition (SEEN) and head of the Endocrinology and Nutrition Unit at the General Hospital of Segovia
The studies are very powerful at a global level and possibly valid both as predictors and for designing preventive and awareness-raising strategies, although the accuracy of the data depends on the sources in each country which, as in our case, does not always have robust national data.
Regarding the editorial and press release accompanying the studies, I think it is very important to highlight the inequalities in the prediction of incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus by race, geographic location and economic status, but it would be important to differentiate the impact these inequalities have on incidence predictions from the impact they have on health outcomes. This is important because the reasons and measures to be taken are different.
Regarding the predicted increase in prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Europe and in richer countries, the growth is mainly determined by the demographic structure and the increase in life expectancy, including the population with diabetes: this is actually good news, but it forces to design health policy strategies for the increased costs of managing this older population with diabetes and its complications.
In low-income and high population growth areas, the main reason for the increase is lifestyle changes, so the measures to reduce new incidence are health education and obesity prevention.
Regarding differences in health outcomes in relation to diabetes mellitus (differences in morbidity and mortality) by race/disadvantaged areas even in developed countries: specific proactive case-finding strategies need to be designed and racial differences in diabetes treatment need to be studied.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
- People
GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
- People