demography

The increase in human life expectancy may be slowing down, according to an analysis of data from nine regions around the world, including Spain, over the past three decades published today in Nature Aging. The accelerated rates of increase in life expectancy observed in the 20th century have slowed, especially after 2010: children born in recent years have a relatively low probability of reaching 100 years of age. The authors suggest that there is no evidence that a radical extension of life expectancy has occurred or will occur in the 21st century.

In 2021, covid-19 replaced stroke as the second leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94 deaths per 100,000 people, says a study published in The Lancet. The pandemic changed the ranking of the five leading causes of death that had remained stable since 1990, according to the study, which is based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The study found that life expectancy since 1990 increased by 6.2 years, an increase that slowed during the pandemic.  

Work by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates that by 2050, more than three quarters (155 out of 204) of countries will not have fertility rates high enough to maintain their population size. The percentage will rise to 97% by the year 2100. The authors warn that national governments must plan for the threats these changes will pose to the economy, food security, health, the environment and geopolitical security. The findings are published in the journal The Lancet. 

Indicators of human longevity are on an upward trend in five groups of countries around the world, and the gap between women and men is narrowing, according to a study published in PLoS ONE. The gender gap in life expectancy resulting from the harmful effect of men's blue-collar jobs will shrink, but will persist in the future because men have a higher risk of certain diseases, the authors write. The research team, which includes scientists from the universities of Alcalá́, Barcelona, Oxford and London (UK), uses data and projections for 194 countries from 1990 to 2030.

The human population could break longevity records in the next few decades, according to a study based on cohort data from 19 industrialised countries - including Spain - that cover records from as far back as the 19th century. Throughout history, mortality has tended to compress, with occasional episodes of delayed mortality, something the authors say suggests that we are still far from maximum human longevity. The research, published in PLoS ONE, points out that cohorts born from 1900 to 1950 will only be able to break longevity records if policies continue to support the health and well-being of older people, and if the political, environmental and economic environment remains stable.

This week the National Statistics Institute (INE) shared the final figures for deaths by cause of death for the year 2021: 39,444 people died from identified covid-19, 34.6% less than in 2020. It also offered preliminary data for the first six months of 2022.

Research published in Nature Human Behaviour analyses changes in life expectancy since the advent of covid-19. Its findings show that some countries in western Europe, including Spain, regained some of their lost life expectancy, and others returned to 2019 levels. On the other hand, losses continued in Eastern Europe and the United States.